Tomorrow's Top 25 today: Tennessee in the top 5, Michigan makes a big jump in the college football rankings

Week 4 in college football was one of the first lineups with conference games scattered across the landscape, and the start of this portion of the season brings the first real challenges for AP Top 25 poll voters. There are few true ranked matchups in the early weeks of the season that can lead to difficult decisions on the ballot. But now that we're into conference play, voters are being asked to consider the strength of the teams beyond their loss count.

Michigan was significantly downgraded for its loss to Texas in Week 2 and fell well out of the top 15 after being uncompetitive in what was widely viewed as a matchup of two College Football Playoff contenders. But after a quarterback change and a clear win over USC in Week 4, the Wolverines have shown that it may have been too early to sell their stock, as their smash-mouth brand of football is still good enough to compete with some of the Big Ten's top teams.

Voters will also be considering how long preseason bias can sustain the rankings of teams that have yet to face tougher tests and have ranked wins. Tennessee toppled NC State when the Wolfpack were ranked, but Saturday's road win over Oklahoma will have a slightly bigger impact, as the Vols look to continue their season-long climb up the rankings with momentum that could put them in the top five.

It will also be difficult to decide where USC and Oklahoma fit in the top 25 after losses. Both have clearly shown form in losses that is worthy of remaining in the rankings, but now they will be compared to teams that have yet to suffer a loss. Every voter has a different method when it comes to splitting hairs and analyzing a team's performance, potential and resume. And with each week of conference play added to the profile, we get a slightly clearer look at how these teams compare to each other.

This is what we predict the new AP Top 25 poll will look like after Week 4.

1. Texas (Last week – 1): No change at the top as Texas put together a dominant performance without its starting quarterback. However, unlike other teams that also used their backup quarterback in Week 4, the Longhorns' QB2 happens to be Arch Manning.

2. Georgia (2): The Bulldogs had Week 4 off and will be back in action next week at Alabama.

3. Ohio State (3): It was a bit slow to start and there was a staggering early deficit, but Ohio State was able to turn things around quickly and secure a dominant 49-14 home win over Marshall.

4. Alabama (4): The Crimson Tide had Week 4 off and will be back in action next week against Georgia.

5. Tennessee (6): The Volunteers have moved into the top five after traveling and giving Oklahoma a tough reception in prime time in the SEC. Once again, Tennessee's defense has excelled and this team is proving to be a more complete team week after week.

6. Ole Miss (5): The Rebels had a significant lead over Tennessee in voting points last week, but the Rebels' best win remains a road victory at Wake Forest. The blowout wins are impressive and Ole Miss looks good, but AP voters will focus more on resumes and profiles as the season progresses.

7. Miami-Dade County (8): One thing we haven't seen from Miami in recent years — at least not consistently — is the ability to put their foot on the gas and really beat their opponents. USF did its best to make things exciting from the start, but unlike some other top-10 teams, the Hurricanes were able to eliminate any chance of an upset with a dominant second half.

8. Missouri (7): Missouri could see some reshuffling after its overtime loss to Vanderbilt. The gap between No. 6 and No. 9 was so narrow in last week's voting that a closer-than-expected result could be enough to overtake the Tigers.

9.Oregon (9): The Ducks had Week 4 off and will be back in action next week at UCLA.

10. Penn State (10): No major changes for the Nittany Lions after the expected loss to Kent State.

11. Michigan (18): Votes for Michigan are expected to be very different after Saturday's win over USC. The Wolverines were as high as No. 13 last week as a 2-1 team with Fresno State's best win, but were left off the ballot entirely by five voters and ranked No. 20 or lower by 19 voters. Those lower opinions will reverse after the Trojans suffered their first loss of the season, and voters who voted higher for Michigan before the game will likely put the Wolverines in the top 10.

12. Utah (12): No Cam Rising? No problem for Utah, which improved to 4-0 on the season and 2-0 in the Big 12 with a hard-fought road win at Oklahoma State. The Utes' defense put in a classy performance, keeping Ollie Gordon II in check and the Cowboys' offense in check before a late charge made the 22-19 score seem closer than the game had been for most of the afternoon.

13.USC (11): The head-to-head win over LSU gives USC a comfortable and predictable landing spot, as the Trojans will now be compared to the other one-loss teams in the rankings. There's no shame in losing to Michigan in Ann Arbor, but it's certainly disappointing considering how close USC came to a thrilling second-half comeback win against the defending national champions.

14. LSU-16: Things looked dicey for a while, but LSU was able to take control late and should not be penalized too much by the voters for the 34-17 win over UCLA.

15. Notre-Dame (17): The strength of this Notre Dame team remains its defense, and it was this group that provided stability in the 28-3 win over Miami (OH).

16. Louisville (19): The Cardinals have enjoyed solid voter support despite their low ranking, so we expect Saturday's 31-19 home win over Georgia Tech to be more of a validation than a reason for a major move up.

17. State of Iowa (20): Back in action for the first time since their emotional comeback win in Iowa, the Cyclones delivered a 52-7 victory over Arkansas State.

18.Clemson (21): The Tigers led NC State 59-14 in the fourth quarter after getting off to a fast start that saw them score touchdowns on six of their first seven possessions. It was a thunderous result for a Clemson team that looks poised to return to the top of the ACC, but not one that will lead to major changes in the AP poll rankings.

19. Illinois (24): Last week, there were 28 voters who didn't even have Illinois on the ballot. We're guessing that's no longer the case after a 31-24 overtime win at Nebraska that pushed the Fighting Illini to 4-0 for the first time since 2011.

20. Oklahoma (15): While voters will be more excited about Tennessee's position, Saturday night's game also suggests the Sooners aren't quite ready to be considered for the top 15.

21. Indiana (NR): History will point to Indiana being 4-0 for the first time since 2020, but this feels very different. Maybe it's because the season started late due to COVID, or maybe it's because the Hoosiers outscored their competition by a combined score of 202-37. Saturday's 52-14 win over Charlotte was just another example of the relentlessness we've seen from Indiana all season, and those stunning finishes have garnered more attention from voters each week.

22. BYU (NR): After dominating Kansas State, the Cougars are 4-0 for the first time since 2012 and were able to underline their success with the win against the Wildcats, which already included an away win at SMU.

23. Oklahoma State (14): If we're basing the rankings on resume alone, there's not a good argument for Oklahoma State's ranking. The Cowboys' best win was against Arkansas, and the team looked sufficiently underdog against a Utah team that was running its second quarterback. But with plenty of voter bias still lingering from the preseason, no bad losses, and not many obvious backup team options, I think the Pokes will still be ranked heading into next week's game at Kansas State — which now looks like a crucial game to stay in the Big 12 title race.

24. State of Kansas (13): The Wildcats were caught in a disappointing situation after a big win on the road and now have to pick up the pieces to stay atop the standings in the Big 12 title race. It was a sloppy performance with enough mental errors to think the issues were correctable, but still a performance that will result in a significant drop in the standings.

25.Texas A&M (25): It's entirely possible that Texas A&M falls out of the top 25 because of how close it was against Bowling Green. The gaps between the 25th-ranked Aggies and the teams outside the rankings were small last week, but many of those teams also lost, so poll inertia could keep Texas A&M above the cut line.

Expected exit: No. 22 Nebraska, No. 23 Northern Illinois