By 2050, deaths from drug-resistant bacteria are expected to increase by 70%

SALT LAKE CITY — Drug-resistant superbugs could kill more than 39 million people by 2050, according to a new study.

The number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections, which already claimed more than a million lives worldwide each year between 1990 and 2021, is expected to increase by almost 70 percent over the next 25 years, according to the study published in the Lancet on Monday. According to the study, an estimated 1.91 million people could die by then as a direct result of so-called AMR (antimicrobial resistance).

During the same period, the first in-depth analysis of the global health impact of antibiotic resistance estimated that the number of deaths involving antibiotic-resistant bacteria could increase by almost 75%, from 4.71 million to 8.22 million per year.

Older people will continue to be most at risk, the study says. Deaths among children from antibiotic resistance fell by 50% between 1990 and 2021, but among those over 70, they rose by more than 80%. The study predicts that this trend will continue: by 2050, the number of children under 5 dying from antibiotic resistance is expected to halve, while deaths among those over 70 will double.

Location also matters. The number of deaths from antibiotic resistance is expected to be highest in South Asia. The study predicts that between 2025 and 2050 there will be a total of 11.8 million deaths directly attributable to antibiotic resistance. The numbers are also expected to be high in other regions of South and East Asia and in sub-Saharan Africa.

“It's a big problem, and it's here to stay,” Christopher JL Murray, lead author of the study and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle, told the Washington Post. He called for “a concerted global effort” to reverse the trend.

This requires “measures that include infection prevention, vaccination, minimizing inappropriate use of antibiotics, and research into new antibiotics,” says a press release from the American Association for the Advancement of Science. The study estimates that such measures could prevent 92 million deaths worldwide between 2025 and 2050.

A high-level meeting on antimicrobial resistance will be held at the United Nations later this month.

The problem is not new. A 2001 Deseret News editorial called for an end to “antibiotic abuse,” citing an estimate by today's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that 75 percent of outpatient antibiotic prescriptions are used to treat respiratory infections, providing little or no benefit but contributing to the spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria.

“We are increasingly seeing antibiotics being overused or used inappropriately, which puts pressure on bacteria and makes them more resistant over time,” Kevin Ikuta, one of the lead authors of the new study and an assistant professor of clinical medicine at UCLA, told the Washington Post.

Ikuta said the 39 million deaths projected over the next 25 years equates to about three deaths per minute.