Hurricane could hit Florida's Gulf Coast this week

The NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking Team is monitoring an area of ​​disturbed weather in the northwest Caribbean that has a high probability of developing into a tropical system this week. The disturbance was designated “Invest 97L” by the National Hurricane Center on Sunday. Invest areas are not organized storm systems. Rather, the term is shorthand for a “study area,” as explained by the National Hurricane Center. The designation allows tropical weather-specific forecast models to be run on the disturbance, which helps determine the likelihood of something forming and possible track paths. As of Monday morning, the red-highlighted feature's chances of development are estimated at 90% over the next 7 days and 70% over the next two days. The first run of the forecast models shows general consistency of the system moving north this week. Once the system reaches the Gulf, it has a chance to intensify over warm waters. If and when the disturbance strengthens into a tropical storm or hurricane, Helene is the next name on this year's name list. While it's too early to name any specific impacts on our region, the closer the storm gets to Florida, the greater the impacts will be. Current precipitation forecasts indicate that over 6 inches of rainfall is possible in our community west of Interstate 75 within the next week. This storm system we're watching is something common this time of year. The Western Caribbean is an area we often have to watch closely from late September through October. Historically, this part of the world is a hotspot for development during this time of year, due in part to a weather phenomenon called the Central American Gyre. The Gyre is a very broad, ponderous area of ​​lower pressure in the atmosphere that forms in Central America at this time of year. Occasionally, this broad area of ​​low pressure can churn up storms that develop into tropical systems. We typically consider September to be the statistical peak of the Atlantic basin hurricane season, but there is also a second peak from late September to early October. This is when storms can form in the Caribbean, driven north by dips in the jet stream. In fact, South Florida has been hit by more tropical systems in October than any other month, although these storms are usually not quite as strong as those in August and September. Hurricane Wilma was one of those late October storms, making landfall in Southwest Florida on October 24, 2005 as a Category 3 storm. Based on tropical climatology, which looks at the history of every recorded hurricane season, the northwestern Caribbean and western Atlantic are the hotspots for tropical storm development from late September to October. Elsewhere in the tropics, we are also observing a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa. Currently, the chances of development are estimated at 70% for the next 7 days. We'll keep you updated on NBC2 News. For the second day in a row, the same shrimp boat rams the same bridge in Fort Myers BeachPartial lunar eclipse visible Tuesday nightFamous Shell Factory & Nature Park announces closure after 86 yearsChild fights for life, 4 others die after crash on I-75 in Collier County

The NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking Team is monitoring an area of ​​unsettled weather conditions in the northwest Caribbean that has a high probability of developing into a tropical system this week.

NBC2 (WBBH-TV)

The disturbance was named “Invest 97L” by the National Hurricane Center on Sunday.

Investment areas are not organized storm systems. Instead, the term is an abbreviation for an “area of investigation,” as explained by the National Hurricane Center.

This designation allows tropical weather-specific forecast models to be applied to the disturbance. This helps determine the likelihood of formation and possible trajectories of events.

As of Monday morning, the chances of development for the feature highlighted in red are 90% in the next seven days and 70% in the next two days.

NBC2 (WBBH-TV)

The first results of the forecast models show a general persistence of the system, which is moving north this week.

NBC2 (WBBH-TV)

Once the system reaches the Gulf, there is a chance it will intensify over warm waters.

If the disturbance intensifies into a tropical storm or hurricane, Helene will be the next name on this year's list.

While it is too early to determine specific impacts on our region, the closer the storm gets to Florida, the greater the impacts will be.

Current precipitation forecasts indicate that our community west of Interstate 75 may receive over 6 inches of rain over the next week.

NBC2 (WBBH-TV)

This storm system we are observing is common at this time of year. The Western Caribbean is an area we usually have to watch closely from late September through October.

NBC2 (WBBH-TV)

Historically, this part of the world has been a hotspot for development at this time of year, due in part to a weather phenomenon called the Central American Gyre.

The vortex is a very broad, cumbersome area of ​​lower pressure in the atmosphere that tends to form in Central America at this time of year.

Occasionally, this extensive low-pressure area can produce storms that develop into tropical systems.

September is usually considered to be the statistical peak of the Atlantic basin hurricane season, but there is also a second peak from late September to early October. This is when storms can form in the Caribbean, driven north by dips in the jet stream.

In fact, South Florida has been hit by more tropical storms in October than any other month, although these storms are typically not quite as strong as those in August and September.

Hurricane Wilma was one of these late October storms, making landfall in southwest Florida on October 24, 2005 as a Category 3 storm.

Based on tropical climatology, which looks back at the history of every recorded hurricane season, the northwestern Caribbean and western Atlantic tend to be the hotspots of tropical development from late September to October.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we are also observing a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa.

NBC2 (WBBH-TV)

Currently, the chances of development for the next seven days are estimated at 70%.

We'll keep you updated on NBC2 news.