Hurricane expected to make landfall on the Gulf Coast this week

(This story has been updated to add new information.)

A storm brewing in the Caribbean is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days and make landfall on the Gulf Coast as early as Thursday – possibly as a severe Category 3 system.

“Everyone along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region needs to be prepared for the impacts of a hurricane,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather's senior hurricane expert, said Monday, adding that the constellation has the potential to be the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. so far this season.

Most forecast models predict the hurricane will make landfall in Florida or the northern Gulf Coast on Thursday, said Weather.com meteorologist Jonathan Erdman.

The system was upgraded to potential tropical cyclone nine status on Monday morning and will be named Helene once it develops into a tropical storm, which is expected to happen sometime Monday or Tuesday.

Meteorologists warn: Gulf Coast residents should prepare now

Unlike many hurricanes that move across the Atlantic for days or weeks and give people plenty of warning before they make landfall, this hurricane is forecast to develop and intensify rapidly once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.

“Now is the time to prepare for a hurricane making landfall on the Gulf Coast. Don't wait until this storm is officially named,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Jon Porter.

He said there is a possibility that this storm could further develop into a major hurricane, classified as a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with maximum sustained winds of 111 to 129 mph (178 to 207 km/h).

This could be the storm that will remember the 2024 hurricane season, Porter said.

Follow the storm:A tropical storm could form in the Gulf of Mexico early this week

Where is the system now?

A weather forecast released by the National Hurricane Center on Monday morning called for showers and thunderstorms associated with an extensive low-pressure system over the northwestern Caribbean to gradually become better organized.

“The environmental conditions appear to be favorable for the further development of this system,” the center said.

“A tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the next day or two as the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where further development is expected.”

How strong could Helene become?

Helene could develop into a powerful hurricane in the Gulf, Erdman said. There is enough deep, warm water in the northwestern Caribbean and parts of the Gulf of Mexico to give the storm strength.

In fact, heat levels in the Gulf of Mexico have reached record levels for this time of year, according to tropical scientist Brian McNoldy of the University of Miami.

What effects can we expect from Helene?

Wind: Sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/h are possible. Where the storm makes landfall on Thursday, strong wind gusts of up to 193 km/h are expected.

Rain: Widespread rainfall of 8 to 12 inches (20 to 30 centimeters) is expected, possibly causing flooding. Showers will begin as early as late Tuesday afternoon or early evening, starting over the Keys and moving northward, according to the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network.

Hurricane expected to make landfall on the Gulf Coast this week

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