Best bets for Bills vs. Jaguars: MNF is all about offense

Last week was phenomenal for the Buffalo Bills, but a quick lead and injury to Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa made for a second half full of stoppage-time plays — and earned us 1/5 on our prop bets. This week, the Bills must navigate a rain-out game against a Jacksonville Jaguars team desperate for a win.

I'm imagining a higher scoring game than most weather-related games. Does that mean many of our favorite Bills players are in for a big night?

Let's look at four ways to tackle this problem Monday Night Football affair at Highmark Stadium. As you will learn from these articles, I tend to avoid the moneyline and over/under bets as they can affect your fan interests.

Dalton Kincaid Over 37.5 yards gained (-110)

Through two games, Kincaid has yet to cross that line in 2024 – but it's well documented how the Arizona Cardinals made plans to stop him in Week 1. Last week, he suffered a minor injury and the game spun out of control early in Buffalo's favor.

This bet is a good buy low spot for a player who has a league-low amount of air yards as a WR/TE but is consistently on the field. I think the Bills know they need to get him going. I would also upgrade this play to 50 yards (+180 odds) or 70 yards (+440).

Josh Allen over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+112)

I believe this line is rated well because of the fear that Josh Allen could use his legs to steal a touchdown from his arm – but the Jaguars rank in the bottom 10 in ERA per pass on defense and second to last in pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

To me, that screams a blitz-heavy defense in the red zone that would force Allen to get the ball out quickly and take away his rushing ability. Buffalo has shown they can run the ball, and it would be very on-brand to switch back to a passing attack right when opponents are planning on running back James Cook.

Gabe Davis Longest reception over 19.5 yards (-110)

I considered playing his touchdown prop (+310) because it's a revenge game and because head coach Doug Pederson is that kind of coach. However, Buffalo's cornerbacks have been too good so far and I don't think he's as valuable as the Jaguars' other wideouts.

However, Gabe Davis has run the most routes for Jacksonville this season and averages 14.7 yards per target, so you'd be betting on a kick play to win. This bet assumes the Bills will go with Brian Thomas Jr., whose line for the longest pass reception is also 19.5 yards.

Curtis Samuel touchdown (+550)

I'll probably play this until it happens because I love what the Bills are doing with wide receiver Curtis Samuel. He's the gadget and motion guy I wrote about earlier this week, and he has the lowest odds of any “primary player” on either team this week.

Samuel will be used frequently in the slot, where Jacksonville has struggled, and he has a chance to score a touchdown specifically designed for him.

That's all for this week's special bets that I think are good value at FanDuel.