Mariners vs. Astros: Predictions, Tips, Odds – 9-23

This AL West series begins Monday night with the Houston Astros taking on the Seattle Mariners at Minute Maid Park. MLB odds have Houston as the favorite at -130, while the overall odds are at 7.5.

My prediction for the Mariners vs. Astros is bullish on Houston, in part because of their edge on the mound. Read on to find out my MLB picks for Monday, September 23rd.

Prediction for Mariners vs. Astros

My best bet
Astros -1.5 (+160 at FanDuel)

My analysis
The Seattle Mariners turn the ball over to right-hander Bryce Miller, who I'll be blocking tonight. Although he has a 3.06 ERA in 30 starts this season, he's in danger of regressing down the stretch.

The RHP has a 3.76 xERA and ranks in the bottom third of the league in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. That expected decline will likely come to fruition against the Houston Astros, a team against whom he has a 5.63 ERA in his last three meetings.

Meanwhile, right-hander Hunter Brown gets the ball for Houston. Brown outperformed Miller in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard hit rate. The Stros starter has also faced Seattle three times this season, posting a 1-0 record with a 1.65 ERA in those three meetings.

The pitchers' advantage doesn't end there, however, considering the Astros' bullpen is superior to the Mariners' in ERA.

That leaves hitting, which is another big advantage for Houston. This season, it outperformed Seattle in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.

Mariners vs. Astros – Same Game Combo (SGP)

Astros -1.5

Bryce Miller Under 4.5 strikeouts

Jose Altuve Over 0.5 hits

I'm also leaving Miller out of the prop market because he's in the 25th percentile in chase rate and 36th percentile in whiff rate. In 89 total appearances against the right-hander in his career, Houston's current lineup boasts a strikeout rate of just 13.5% and a whiff rate of 15.4%.

Jose Altuve has a .364 batting average in 11 career appearances against Miller and has 21 hits in the last 16 games while compiling a .309 batting average.

Learn how to bet on the same game in an accumulator bet with these helpful tips and strategies.

Odds for Mariners vs. Astros

Mariners vs Astros live odds

Mariners vs Astros Opening Odds

• Money line: Seattle +136 | Houston -162
• Execute line: Seattle +1.5 (-164) | Houston -1.5 (+136)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-124) | Under 7.5 (+102)

Mariners vs. Astros Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis

• Houston entered the race as a -162 favorite and the bets have since been cut to -130.
• In my opinion, the market is greatly overreacting to Miller's success this season and now is a good time to buy the Astros at a discount.
• The overall score was initially 7.5 and remained at that level at the time of writing this article.
• The pressure is heavily on the over, so it is more likely that this number will go up to eight rather than seven.

Trend Mariners vs. Astros

Eleven of Houston's last 12 wins have come by at least two points. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Astros here.

Game info Mariners vs Astros

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