Tracking PTC-8 near Florida: Spaghetti models, cones, maps

BUT I KNOW A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE PROBABLY THINKING, OKAY, WHAT'S GOING ON HERE? YES. METEOROLOGIST ERIC BURRIS IS JOINING US NOW. SO, ERIC, I THINK IT'S EXACTLY YOU JUST KNOW WHAT? LET'S KEEP CALM UNTIL WE KNOW EXACTLY THE DETAILS OF THIS THING. YES, I JUST PUT TOGETHER SOME GRAPHICS TO TRY TO ILLUSTRATE OUR EXACT IMPACTS COUNTY BY COUNTY. I THINK THIS IS GOING TO BE A WORST STORM FOR PARTS OF THE BIG BEND OR THE PANHANDLE, BUT FOR US, WE'RE GOING TO BE ON THE EDGES. So let's just go through the hits, runs and errors in pink. So. We've issued hurricane warnings for the west coast areas, including the Tampa Bay Area. Basically, hurricane conditions are possible here. And the hurricane center is doing that in case the storm drifts a little bit further to the right. Those could be dropped down, but we just want to make sure it's easier to go up and then come back rather than issuing warnings at the last second. All right. So for us, tropical storm warnings have been issued for Seminole Orange Osceola, Polk and Lake Sumter counties, which means tropical storm conditions are possible in the next 48 hours. I suspect Marion and Alachua counties will be added later, but that's just kind of a timeline. So here's the satellite data for a potential tropical cyclone nine. Wind speeds are 35 miles per hour. It's not quite organized enough to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm. We believe that will happen later in the day and develop into a hurricane tomorrow with winds of about 75 miles per hour. THEN, AS IT MOVES TOWARDS FLORIDA'S WEST COAST, ANYWHERE FROM PANAMA CITY ACROSS APALACHICOLA BAY, THROUGH THE BIG BEND, ANYWHERE FROM PINELLAS COUNTY ACROSS TOWARDS PANAMA CITY. AS A LANDSHEET, WE EXPECT IT TO BE A CATEGORY 3 STORM WITH WINDS OF ABOUT 185 MILES PER HOUR. BUT I'LL RUN ALL THE DIFFERENT DATA POINTS WE CAN. AND BASED ON ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY, WE THINK MARION COUNTY HAS ABOUT A 3,040% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE, AND THE ORLANDO METROPOLITAN AREA HAS ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE. AND THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO, THAT'S GOING TO DECREASE. NOW AS THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE GROWS, WE'LL SEE THOSE PERCENTAGES GO UP. BUT RIGHT NOW, WE'RE JUST MONITORING EVERYTHING. AND BASED ON THE DATA WE HAVE, WE'RE DESIGNATING THURSDAY AS FIRST WARNING. THE WEATHER DAY BECAUSE THEN WE COULD TALK ABOUT THE GROUND WEATHER COMING UP WITH A FLOODING COMPONENT, A HEAVY COMPONENT. AND OF COURSE THE STRONG GUSTS. SO HERE'S OUR FUTURE FORECAST MODEL AND WE START TOMORROW AT 3:00 AM. SOME OF THESE FEEDBACK BANDS ARE COMING WITH 20 TO 30 MILES PER HOUR GUSTS. BUT I BELIEVE THE WEATHER WILL BE THE WORST ON THURSDAY. GROUNDS, THE WIND WILL INCREASE. AND THEN NOTE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON, 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN LATE THURSDAY WHEN THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MAKES LAND. THEN WE COULD GET SOME OF THOSE 50 TO 60 MILE PER HOUR GUSTS IN THE CITY. AND THAT'S WHAT WE'LL HAVE UNTIL ABOUT 2 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AND THEN FRIDAY DURING THE DAY. THAT'S ALL GOING TO LEAVE US GOOD. As far as the impacts to individual counties, I think Marion, Sumter, Lake and Polk will see wind gusts over 60 miles per hour. The worst of the weather will be Thursday. Of course, we'll be timing it closely for the metro area. Seminole, Orange and Osceola Counties: Maximum wind gusts. We're expecting around 45 miles per hour. And our East Coast communities, Flagler, Volusia and Brevard, are expecting wind gusts of around 40 to 47 miles per hour. OK, so today is nice. The chance of an isolated rain shower is around 9,210%. SOME OF THESE FEEDER BANDS ARE WORKING FOR TOMORROW AND THEN THURSDAY WILL BE THE WORST DAY AS THIS GENERAL TROPICAL HUMIDITY CONTINUES AND CLEARS UP OUR AREA ON FRIDAY AND THEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine: See maps, track, spaghetti models

Updated: 5:42 a.m. EDT, September 24, 2024

Our next named storm — Helene — is expected to form this week, according to the National Hurricane Center, while potential Tropical Cyclone Nine moves across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.>> Bookmark this page for the latest maps and models>> Download the WESH 2 appPHN0eWxlPi5lbWJlZC1yYWRhciB7IGNsZWFyOiBib3RoOyBoZWlnaHQ6IDEwMHZ3OyB9IEBtZWRpYSBvbmx5IHNjcmVlbiBhbmQgKG1pbi13aWR0aDogNDEuMjVyZW0pIHsgLmVtYmVkLXJhZGFyIHsgaGVpZ2h0OiA1MDBweDsgfSB 9PC9zdHlsZT4KPHNjcmlwdCB0eXBlPSJ0ZXh0L2phdmFzY3JpcHQiIHNyYz0iaHR0cHM6Ly93aWRnZXRzLWx0cy5tZWRpYS53ZWF0aGVyLmNvbS93eHdpZGdldC5sb2FkZXIuanM/Y2lkPTI4Mjg1MjgwMSI+PC9zY3JpcHQ+=Related: WESH 2 Hurricane Survival Guide 2024Related: Hurricane KidCast: What is a Hurricane? And More Answers to Kids' QuestionsRelated: Surviving the Season | 2024 Hurricane Special from WESH 2 First Warning Weather Stay online and on air with WESH 2 for the most accurate Central Florida weather forecasts.RadarSevere Weather AlertsDownload the WESH 2 News app for the most up-to-date weather alerts The First Warning Weather team includes First Warning Chief Meteorologist Tony Mainolfi, Eric Burris, Kellianne Klass, Marquise Meda and Cam Tran.

Our next named storm – Helene – is expected to form this week, according to the National Hurricane Center, while potential Tropical Cyclone Nine moves across the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

>> Bookmark this page to get the latest maps and models
>> Download the WESH 2 app

Related: WESH 2 Hurricane Survival Guide 2024
Related: Hurricane KidCast: What is a hurricane? And other answers to children's questions
Related: Surviving the Season | Hurricane Special 2024 from WESH 2

Weather of the first warning

Stay online and on air with WESH 2 for the most accurate weather forecasts for Central Florida.

Download the WESH 2 News App to receive the latest weather alerts.

The First Warning Weather team includes the First Warning Chief Meteorologist Tony Mainolfi, Eric Burris, Kellianne Klass, Marquise Meda And Cam Tran.