Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

The NL Central was already locked in for the Brewers, who lost three straight games to the Diamondbacks before winning a thrilling game on Sunday afternoon that saw them overcome an 8-0 deficit to win 10-9. They will now look to keep that momentum going as they play on the road for the last time this season, facing the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park in their final NL Central series of the year.

The Pirates started this year with a bang, leading the division for the first half of April before being overtaken by the Brewers. Since going 10-4 on April 12, the Pirates are just 63-79 and now sit in last place with a record of 73-83, 16 games behind Milwaukee in the NL Central.

In terms of injuries, third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes (back inflammation), catcher Henry Davis (hand inflammation) and catcher Endy Rodríguez (elbow surgery) are likely out for the rest of the season, although Davis is still listed as a returnee (TBD) on the team's injury report. The Pirates have also dealt with a host of pitcher injuries, including Kyle Nicolas (oblique muscle strain), Braxton Ashcraft (recurring forearm injury), Ben Heller (shoulder inflammation), Marco Gonzales (forearm strain), Johan Oviedo (Tommy John surgery), Dauri Moreta (UCL surgery), Daulton Jefferies (elbow inflammation) and Hunter Stratton (patellar tendon tear), all of whom are out for the year.

Offensively, the Pirates are led by the trio of Bryan Reynolds (22 home runs, 85 RBIs, 10 steals, .276/.343/.444 line), Oneil Cruz (21 home runs, 76 RBIs, 22 steals, .268/.331/.466 line) and Andrew McCutchen (20 home runs, 50 RBIs, three steals, .238/.336/.423), who at 37 years old has his best power numbers since 2021 with the Phillies. Catcher Joey Bart and former Brewer Rowdy Tellez have also shown power, hitting 13 home runs each. As a team, the Pirates rank near the bottom in most offensive stats. These include home runs (151; 26th), runs scored (642; 23rd), batting average (.236; 23rd), OPS (.673; 27th) and stolen bases (104; 16th).

Aside from star rookie Paul Skenes (1.99 ERA, 167 strikeouts in 131 innings) — who the Brewers will thankfully miss in this series — the Pirates haven't had the most versatile pitching staff this season. David Bednar has had his share of problems as a closer, with a 6.05 ERA and seven blown saves in 59 appearances this year. Aroldis Chapman leads the team with 65 appearances and has a 3.97 ERA and 11 saves this year. Carmen Mlodzinski and Colin Holderman are the other key names in their “winning” bullpen, while Dennis Santana, Ryan Borucki, Jalen Beeks, Joey Wentz and Isaac Mattson are also on the active roster despite all those pitcher injuries. As a team, the Pirates rank 20th in baseball with a team ERA of 4.16, including a starter ERA of 3.93 (15th) and a reliever ERA of 4.55 (27th). They also rank 21st with 1,302 strikeouts this year.

Probable pitchers

Tuesday, September 24, 5:40 p.m.: Tobias Myers (3.05 ERA, 4.07 FIP) vs. Bailey Falter (4.15 ERA, 4.26 FIP)

Tobias Myers made his MLB debut in Pittsburgh with the Crew in April. This is his third start against Pittsburgh this year, as he is 1-1 after allowing one run on four hits and one walk with four strikeouts in his debut (a loss) before turning in a stellar eight-inning performance at home in July when he allowed no runs on four hits and one walk with six strikeouts in a win. Although he continues to outperform his FIP by nearly a run (4.07 FIP vs. 3.05 ERA), Myers has impressed all season, putting his name high on the list of candidates to be the postseason starter. In four starts in September, he is 2-1 with a 3.32 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 21 ²⁄₃ innings.

Falter pitched seven innings, allowed one run on three hits and two walks and had eight strikeouts in a win over Milwaukee in April. After a rough August (6.53 ERA in five starts), Falter looked solid in September, posting a 2.50 ERA with 11 strikeouts in 18 innings in three starts this month. Including the April start, Falter has made three career appearances (two starts) against the Brewers, posting a 1.23 ERA and 13 strikeouts in 14 ²⁄₃ innings.

Wednesday, September 25, 5:40 p.m.: Freddy Peralta (3.69 ERA, 4.24 FIP) vs. Luis L. Ortiz (3.43 ERA, 4.26 FIP)

One of Peralta's worst starts of the season was against this Pirates team – he allowed five runs on five hits and five walks over 4 ²⁄₃ innings against Pittsburgh in April. In four starts in September, Peralta is 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 21 strikeouts over 20 innings. He has made more appearances against the Pirates than any other team in his career, with 21 appearances and 12 starts. Over 78 ¹⁄₃ Innings against Pittsburgh, he has an ERA of 3.56 and 91 strikeouts.

Ortiz, 25, has had a solid season for the Pirates, although his ERA exceeds his FIP by almost a full run (3.43 ERA vs. 4.26 FIP). He has made 36 appearances (14 starts) this year with 102 strikeouts in 128 ²⁄₃ innings, came into the rotation in July after several of the Pirates' pitchers were injured. In three starts in September, he is 0-2 with a 5.17 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 15 ²⁄₃ Innings. He played twice this year as a substitute against the Crew, in 4 ²⁄₃ innings and allowed two runs with nine strikeouts. He has made four career appearances (two starts) against Milwaukee, with a 2.93 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 15 ¹⁄₃ innings.

Thursday, September 26, 11:35 a.m.: Aaron Civale (4.53 ERA, 4.84 FIP) vs. Mitch Keller (4.21 ERA, 4.14 FIP)

Civale has been an anchor in the rotation since being traded in early July, although his 3.84 in 13 starts with Milwaukee doesn't tell the whole story, as his FIP with Milwaukee (5.03) is actually worse than with Tampa Bay (4.70), where he had a 5.07 ERA. In four starts in September, Civale is 2-1 with a 4.12 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 19 ²⁄₃ Innings. He made 6 ¹⁄₃ innings against Pittsburgh in July, allowing one run on six hits and two walks with six strikeouts in a loss. In five career starts against the Pirates, he has a 3.94 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 29 ²⁄₃ innings.

Keller, an All-Star in 2023, had made 30 starts for the second consecutive year as he currently has an ERA that is identical to his 2023 figure of 4.21. He struggled in September, allowing 16 earned runs in 20 games. ²⁄₃ innings (6.97 ERA) with 22 strikeouts in four starts. Both of his starts against Milwaukee came early in the year, one on April 25 (five innings, four runs allowed on six hits and two walks with seven strikeouts) and another on May 13 (six innings, no runs allowed on eight hits and no walks with seven strikeouts). He has made eight starts against the Crew in his career, with a 5.44 ERA and 47 strikeouts in 41 ¹⁄₃ innings.

forecast

With virtually nothing left to win for the Brewers (they're all but eliminated from the NL's top two spots at this point) and the Pirates slowly plodding toward the finish, this is a low-stakes series and therefore difficult to predict. The Brewers' talent is still greater than the Pirates', so I'm betting on the Crew winning two of three games before their final regular season series.