MLB expert tips for Tuesday, September 24

This article is part of our MLB picks series.

MLB Betting: Expert Tips for MLB

Tuesday24 September

• Record since the beginning of the year: 161-162-1
• Before Article: 1-2 (-2.05 units)

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MLB Betting Tips

MLB SPLITS

I rely on splits more than any other metric in baseball. I look at starting pitcher splits (full season) and team splits (last 30 days), as well as right-handed vs. left-handed pitcher splits to get a large enough sample size but also timeliness. This is where you can get valuable results because bookmakers don't factor them into the lines.

WEATHER INFLUENCES

Always check the weather for every game. Pay attention to temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will fly farther; if the wind blows or the temperature is cold, the ball will stay in the stadium. When temperatures and humidity rise in summer, the score may increase.

BULLPEN USE

You need to check the bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitcher makes up about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen makes up 45 percent and is often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when comparing a complete game to a first five inning (F5) play.

WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING

Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games following night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before the lineups for early games are announced. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the prognosis of a game. I'm currently avoiding all doubleheaders because there are just too many unknowns with how the lineups will be constructed unless I'm going for an under.

Do not place bets on the the best online sports betting without first ensuring that you have the most up-to-date MLB odds to help you make an informed bet.

MLB Unit Betting Guide

Here is a basic guideline I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to put on each bet:

• 1.5 – 2.0 units (Best Bets – usually a full game or ML/RL game)
• 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest games, system games)
• 0.75 units (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
• 0.50 units (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
• 0.25 units (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)

Chicago Cubs at the Philadelphia Phillies

I was hoping to face Taijuan Walker one last time this season, but it looks like the Phillies have wised up and will use him as a reliever for tonight's game. Even without Walker as the starter, I'll look at the over at this point, as Justin Steele is most likely on a short hook. There's no reason for the Cubs to extend his use at this point. Both teams have hit well over the last 30 days.

Tanner Banks, Kolby Allard and then Walker are expected to pitch in this game. The Cubs have a wRC+ of 127 against right-handed pitchers over the last 30 days. The Phillies have a wRC+ of 121 against left-handed pitchers over the last 30 days.

The Cubs have gone over in 10 of their last 13 road games. The Phillies are also one of the strongest teams at home and play in a stadium that is favorable for the hitters.

MLB Tips for Cubs at Phillies

• Cubs/Phillies over 8.5 runs for 1 unit (-110 at BetMGM)

Kansas City Royals at the Washington Nationals

The Royals have been one of the best stories of the 2024 MLB season and are one game ahead of the Twins in the battle for the American League Wild Card spot. Normally I would have watched the Royals, especially with Cole Ragan on the mound, but the Royals are just 2-8 in their last 10 games and aren't hitting that well.

The Royals have a wRC+ of 67 against lefties and a wRC+ of 79 against righties over the last 30 days. Mitchell Parker and Ragans have been about even since August 1st, so I'll look to play the underdog against a weakening Royals team.

MLB tips for the Royals at the Nationals

• Nationals ML for 1 unit (+145 at BetRivers)

San Francisco Giants at the Arizona Diamondbacks

Logan Webb is one of the pitchers I want to support at home and weaken on the road because his home stadium is one of the best pitching stadiums in baseball. His splits prove it with a home/road split of 2.83 ERA/1.03 WHIP at home versus 4.36 ERA/1.46 WHIP on the road.

Brandon Pfaadt had a strong outing in his last appearance, but his numbers at home before this start were atrocious with a 7.58 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP (July 27-September 14).

Arizona is fighting for its spot in the National League Wild Card race, and I expect them to score at least 5-6 runs in this game. While the Giants aren't playing for the big time, they should be able to hit Pfaadt enough to get to the 8.0 run total.

MLB tips for Giants at Diamondbacks

• Giants/Diamondbacks over 8.0 runs for 1 unit (-105 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Summary of today's best MLB bets

• Cubs/Phillies over 8.5 runs for 1 unit (-110 at BetMGM)
• Nationals ML for 1 unit (+145 at BetRivers)
• Giants/Diamondbacks over 8.0 runs for 1 unit (-105 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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