Hurricane warning issued for the Suncoast

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – The National Hurricane Center reports: “The disturbance is forecast to strengthen and reach near hurricane strength as it makes landfall in the northwestern Caribbean early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions, possibly hurricane strength, are expected over portions of western Cuba and the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

A storm surge warning was issued from Indian Pass, Florida southward to Bonita Beach, Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. A hurricane warning was issued for the Florida Gulf Coast from Englewood northward and westward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay. A tropical storm warning was issued for the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to the Walton-Bay county line and from north of Bonita Beach to south of Englewood.”

The most likely time for tropical storm force winds will be Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Rainbands will have already moved in beforehand, and periods of heavy rain are possible as early as later tomorrow. So all outdoor storm preparations should be completed by tomorrow night to achieve the maximum safety window. That means that if you want to gather up patio furniture, check your boat's mooring lines, bring in trash cans, or make other precautionary storm preparations, you have two days before conditions could become dangerous. Conditions will worsen Wednesday night into Thursday.

Today the weather is very nice, but hot. Maximum temperatures could reach 35 degrees, with perceived temperatures in the afternoon reaching 41 degrees. If you are working outside today, be sure to take breaks and drink plenty of fluids.

There are questions in the forecast that will be better clarified in the next 24 hours. One of the questions is how close or far from the coast the center of the storm will be when it passes closest on Thursday. A distance of, say, 50 miles east of the current best track is still within the cone and could have a big impact on the maximum winds we get. Especially along coastal areas. The same goes for a shift 50 miles out to sea, which could significantly reduce wind speeds. Currently, it looks like the strongest winds will likely be tropical storm force, with hurricane force possible but less likely. That too could certainly change as new data comes in. Aside from distance from the coast, storm intensity is also still a bit uncertain. A larger and stronger storm will spread its wind field outward over a greater distance. Differences in the models are starting to resolve and as the storm moves into the Gulf, the National Hurricane Center will refine wind forecasts. As a rule of thumb, to have the greatest possible margin of safety, prepare for a storm that is one category above the forecast.

The amount of precipitation is also questionable. Currently, the total rainfall over a three-day period is 4 to 6 inches. Heavy rains overnight from Wednesday to Thursday could lead to flooding on roads and in other low-lying areas.

High tide will be at 7:00 am on Thursday, just after midnight on Friday, and again at 9:00 am. We will be watching for storm surges at these tides. From about midday on Thursday until the storm makes landfall on Thursday evening, the wind will be onshore. The tide could be at its highest during this time.

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