The best WNBA bets today (predictions, special bets for Caitlin Clark, Lynx-Mercury)

Two more Games 2 will take place on Wednesday – and two more teams are facing elimination from the WNBA playoffs.

Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever begin the evening against the Connecticut Sun after being beaten by 24 points in Game 1 on Sunday. Clark is looking to rebound, but tonight she could be a… candidate for relegation.

In the Western Conference, Napheesa Collier (38 points in Game 1) and the Minnesota Lynx will be looking to sweep the Phoenix Mercury, who were not swept off the court despite scoring 95 points in Game 1.

Can we trust the Lynx to have an 8.5 point advantage?

Here's a breakdown of my two plays for Game 2 on Wednesday.

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (Futures included). You can also find my daily games on BetStamp here.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Minnesota Lynx -8.5 (-110) vs. Phoenix Mercury – 0.5 units

The Lynx failed to match their performance in Game 1 – which was disappointing after a 32-19 first quarter – but they still ended up beating the Mercury by seven points.

With that spread narrowing by one point to 8.5 in Game 2, I'm going back to the Lynx for several reasons.

First, Minnesota dominated against the Mercury during the regular season, winning at home by 24 and 13 points. It also outperformed the Mercury in every major category, from net rating to offensive rating and defensive rating to effective field goal percentage.

Phoenix held on to Game 1 thanks to 33 points and 10 assists from Natasha Cloud and a 5-of-10 three-point shooting percentage from Diana Taurasi.

Are these two things repeatable in Game 2? I don't think so.

Phoenix sank 14 of 27 threes (51.9 percent) in Game 1 and still lost by seven points. There's a reason the Mercury were 8-13 ATS as underdogs in the regular season, and I don't think they can keep this game close after losing Game 1 despite fielding their A+ offense.

Caitlin Clark UNDER 19.5 points (+100)

I don't want to do it, but it's time to take out Caitlin Clark against the best defense in the WNBA.

Connecticut has carried its rookie sensation all season, and that continued in Game 1 on Sunday.

Clark ended up making just 4 of 17 field shots and 2 of 13 three-pointers for 17 points. This trend will continue against the Sun in 2024. In four regular season games against CT, Clark averaged just 16.5 points, 2.0 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game and lost the ball 25 times during the regular season.

DiJonai Carrington is one of the best perimeter defenders in the WNBA and will put pressure on Clark from the start of this game. Additionally, the Sun love to slow the game down and rank last in the WNBA in tempo – the opposite of the Fever's fast-paced offense.

Since the Sun (No. 1 in the league in defensive rating) held the Fever to just 69 points in Game 1, I'm not convinced Clark will score over 20 points in Game 2.

The odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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