Cruz and Allred are virtually tied and have six weeks until Election Day

HOUSTON – Election Day is just six weeks away and the race for U.S. Senate in Texas appears to have no clear leader. Senator Ted Cruz and Democratic Congressman Colin Allred are in a tight race.

Nine polls on this race were released last month. All show Cruz ahead by between two and ten points.

But the Morning Consult poll released last week shows something not seen this entire cycle: Allred has a razor-thin lead over Cruz.

When you turn on your television in Texas, you might think you're in a battlefield state. Cruz and Allred both bombard you with advertising, each trying to portray the other as extreme.

“Money is going to make the difference here,” said KHOU political analyst Brandon Rottinghaus.

There are lots of them. Over the past two years, both campaigns have raised a combined $64 million. Cruz has spent more than $16 million since 2023. Allred exceeded those expenses by more than $27 million.

“Both sides are using the air war as part of their key strategy for communicating with voters,” Rottinghaus said.

Polls show a tightening race. Just last month, Cruz managed a 10-point lead in an ActiVote poll. Now the latest poll from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation shows Cruz up by three points — a virtual tie that's almost within the poll's margin of error of 2.83.

“I think Team Allred has to be happy with where they are. If it’s within striking distance a month before Election Day, it gives it credibility,” Rottinghaus said.

That the race is closer than expected is fueling concern among some Republicans, including Donald Trump's co-campaign manager, who tweeted: “What the hell is wrong with the Senate race in Texas?”

“Voters want to like who they elect,” Rottinghaus said.

Allred takes advantage of Cruz's 50% unfavorable numbers. But his biggest challenge is that 30% of voters still don't know enough about him.

Rottinghaus said despite the polls, the odds are still in Cruz's favor.

“It will take a rare combination of things for Democrats to win in Texas,” Rottinghaus said. “Everything really has to work for Colin Allred to win.”

The next big moment in the race may be the only debate between Cruz and Allred. It's scheduled for October 15 in Dallas. You can watch it on KHOU 11 at 7 p.m