NFL odds and picks for Week 4

Football handicapper Sean Stapeldi is in his first season on the Post's NFL Bettor's Guide.

Minnesota Vikings (+3) over GREEN BAY PACKERS

The market believes the Vikings are overvalued at 3-0 heading into their divisional road game against Green Bay, and I join the 82 percent of public bettors who disagree.

Sam Darnold may have more to prove, but there's no denying that he's a perfect fit for Kevin O'Connell's system and has the NFL's second-highest passer rating at 117.3.

It's also a revenge game for Aaron Jones, who is averaging 5.4 yards per carry.

Even if Jordan Love returns, it won't be under the friendliest of circumstances: Brian Flores has made Minnesota No. 1 in defensive DVOA thanks to his leadership in quarterback pressures and sacks and the fact that he's only scored two passing touchdowns so far .

Tennessee Titans-MIAMI DOLPHINS Under 36.5

Settle in for a Monday night paint dryer.

Will Levis' clinical decision-making has cost Tennessee the most turnovers in football, and I don't expect much more production from Miami's Tyler Huntley, who fills in at midfielder off the practice squad.

Both secondaries defended quietly and responsibly, as Tennessee allowed the fewest air yards while Miami ranks in the top 10 in yards allowed by catches.

Betting on the NFL?

The Dolphins led all season by just one game-winning field goal in Week 1, and they have scored the fewest points in the NFL (33).

Now let's compare that to a Tennessee offensive lineman who ranks 31st in offensive EPA per play.

Since 2020, the minors have won 74% in games with a total score of 37 or less.

Last week: 2:0. Panthers (F), Giants-Browns Under (F)
Season: 4-2.