UFC 307 Preview, Odds, Tips and Predictions: Thompson vs. Buckley

The next UFC pay-per-view fight card, UFC 307, takes place on Saturday, October 5th at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. The stacked fight card features two title fights. In the main event, UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira puts his title on the line against Khalil Rountree Jr. The evening's co-main event pits UFC women's bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington against former 135-pound titleholder Julianna Pena. Earlier in the night, former two-time UFC welterweight title challenger Stephen Thompson faces Joaquin Buckley in a 170-pound contest.

Thompson enters the UFC 307 fight card as the No. 9 fighter in the official UFC welterweight rankings, while Buckley enters at No. 11.

Below we look at the UFC 307 matchup between Thompson and Buckley.

Careers

Stephen Thompson

Stephen Thompson (17-7-1) is in the midst of a difficult stretch. The 41-year-old UFC veteran is 1-3 in his last four appearances since July 2021. Thompson is coming off a December 2023 submission loss to the up-and-coming Shavkat Rakhmonov.

Thompson made his UFC debut in February 2012 with a Knockout of the Night stoppage of Dan Stittgen. The win moved the former kickboxer to 6-0 as an MMA fighter.

Thompson's next fight ended with him on the wrong side of a decision against Matt Brown. The defeat was the first of his MMA career. After that setback, Thompson went 7-0, earning four knockouts and three decisions between May 2013 and June 2016. During this time he received three Performance of the Night bonuses.

This winning streak made Thompson the UFC's second-best welterweight fighter and earned him a shot at then-UFC 170-pound champion Tyron Woodley. The two fought to a majority draw at UFC 205 in November 2016. In the rematch in March 2017, Woodley scored a majority decision to defend his UFC crown.

Things have been up and down for the 41-year-old Thompson since the loss to Woodley. Since that duel he is 4-5, with wins over Jorge Masvidal, Vicente Luque, Geoff Neal and most recently Kevin Holland. Thompson's losses included Darren Till, Anthony Pettis, Gilbert Burns, Belal Muhammad and Rakhmonov.

Joaquin Buckley

Heading into UFC 307, Joaquin Buckley (19-6) is on the best track of his UFC career, picking up four wins in his last four outings, most recently defeating Nursulton Ruziboev via decision in May.

Buckley was 10-2 on an LFA card after a second-round TKO win over Jackie Gosh. A week later, Buckley made his UFC debut against Kevin Holland. Holland scored a third-round knockout of Buckley.

Following that loss, Buckley scored two knockouts of his own and received Performance of the Night bonuses for stopping Impa Kasanganay and Jordan Wright. However, Buckley was unable to maintain this momentum and fell by knockout to Alessio Di Chirico in January 2021.

Buckley bounced back from that loss with three straight wins, but faltered again, losing to Nassourdine Imavov and Chris Curtis after that winning streak.

Since his knockout loss to Curtis in 2022, the 30-year-old Buckley is 4-0 with two knockouts and two decisions.

UFC 307 betting odds: Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley

Buckley opened as the -150 betting favorite over Thompson, who was +110. Today, Buckley is listed at -210 while Thompson is the +150 betting underdog.

Significant statistics

Thompson averages 4.11 significant hits per minute with 46 percent accuracy. His attack defense is 54 percent and he is hit an average of 3.03 times per minute. Thompson averages 0.26 takedowns per 15 minutes with 41 percent accuracy. His takedown defense is 65 percent.

Buckley connects on 36 percent of his significant punch attempts, averaging 4.25 punches landed per minute. Buckley's opponents land 3.12 significant hits per minute with a strike defense of 58 percent. Buckley's takedown accuracy is 44 percent and he scores 1.69 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown defense is 69 percent.

UFC 307: Thompson vs. Buckley Prediction and Picks

It will be a surprise if Buckley decides to continue the fight on Saturday. His best path to victory is to use his takedowns and ground skills to get Thompson to the mat and keep him there. Buckley has scored eight takedowns in his four-fight winning streak.

The betting tip is a Buckley decision win.

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