Analysis: Iran has been reluctant to retaliate against Israel after a Hezbollah leader was killed in an airstrike

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran lost its most reliable ally in the Middle East when an Israeli airstrike claimed lives Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. But Iran is not at the forefront of retaliation.

That puts Tehran in a quandary: If it doesn't respond, it could anger the militias it relies on in the region. Meanwhile, any potential retaliation risks a major war as the theocracy faces major challenges at home.

“By the grace and power of God, Lebanon will ensure that the transgressing, malicious enemy repents of his actions,” Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said after Nasrallah's death on Friday. But Iran's 85-year-old supreme ruler made no mention of his country taking action following the death of a man he once praised as “an extraordinary face in the world of Islam” following the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah .

This reluctance continued until Monday, when Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani told reporters that “the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Iranian people are not looking for war” but for “peace and stability in the region.”

Although Kananni added that “any adventurous step or action against our national security or interests and our hands will never be tied,” he wore a checkered Palestinian keffiyeh scarf at one point during his speech.

These comments highlight the reluctance to respond to Nasrallah's death. Although his leadership of Hezbollah was the crown jewel Iran's decades-long strategy to arm regional militias To counter both Israel and the United States, Iran remains cautious about when – or whether – it will retaliate.

That is not to say that there were no retaliatory strikes during the year Israel-Hamas war This has torn the Middle East apart and threatens to erupt into a regional conflict. Iran launched an unprecedented direct attack on Israel in April. It even launched a missile attack against locations in Iraq, Syria And Pakistan in January.

But these attacks followed direct attacks on Iranian targets, such as: Suspected Israeli attack on an Iranian diplomatic post in Syria.

“I think Iran's priorities have been very misunderstood since October 8,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the London-based international affairs think tank Chatham House. “There was a misunderstanding that Iran would spread.”

Instead, it stayed behind after Hamas – another militant group it had armed – launched its attack on Israel on October 7, killing 1,200 people and taking another 250 hostage. Although millions of Iranians reportedly volunteered online to fight on behalf of the Palestinians, Iran did not enter the war when an Israeli offensive devastated the Gaza Strip, killing over 41,000 people.

Since then, an increasingly emboldened Israel has attacked Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthi rebels and other groups. On the occasion of Nasrallah's assassination, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quoted a line from the Jewish Talmud that fit this strategy: “If someone rises up to kill you, kill him first.”

For Netanyahu, whose political career has revolved around what he perceives as a threat from Iran, that includes a counterattack against Iran's allies, which Tehran calls the “Axis of Resistance.” These militias grew in prominence and power in the chaos that followed the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, the 2011 Arab Spring and the rise of Houthi rebels in Yemen.

This created what Iran's opponents feared would be a “Shiite crescent” of influence that Tehran could wield, something Israel may want to push back.

“An increasingly emboldened Israel appears to be considering a broader plan to confront Iran across the Middle East with the aim of creating a new regional order,” said Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at European Council for Foreign Relations. “This is a dangerous illusion. Despite Iran’s current weakness, this is seen as an existential threat by Tehran and its regional allies.”

Iran could encourage more asymmetric attacks, targeting Jewish tourists, synagogues or Israeli diplomatic missions, as it has done in the past. Netanyahu likely warned Iran of that risk on Monday, saying: “There is no place in the Middle East that Israel cannot reach.”

Tehran could also use weapons its nuclear program. After the collapse of the nuclear deal with world powers in 2015, the company is already enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels. Hardliners within the Iranian theocracy, such as the daily Kahyan, are already calling for a “tougher” response than the April attack, which caused very little damage.

However, this is in direct contradiction to the plans of the new Iranian reformist president Masoud Pezeshkian, who campaigned on the promise of lifting the devastating economic sanctions against Iran. This becomes increasingly important as energy prices continue to fall and Iran is likely to sell its oil at a discount because it is banned from many countries.

If “the commitments under the nuclear deal are implemented fully and in good faith, dialogue on other issues can follow,” Pezeshkian told the United Nations General Assembly last week.

Ending sanctions requires an agreement with the West over the nuclear program, which will become nearly impossible if Iran enters an all-out war with Israel. We believe that economic pressures remain critical to Iran's internal stability as authorities recall the months of protests that followed the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022.

“Right now it seems like the president and the Supreme Leader, who is extremely cautious, want to keep the line open for dialogue and negotiations,” Vakil said.

And to keep that line open, Iran needs someone else to take the lead against Israel.

“Tehran appears content to let Hezbollah respond to Nasrallah’s murder alone, and perhaps in collusion with the Houthi movement in Yemen, which has recently begun firing some of its Iranian-supplied rockets against Israel,” it said it in the New York newspaper The security think tank Soufan Center announced on Monday.

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EDITOR’S NOTE – Jon GambrellThe Associated Press' Gulf and Iran news director, has reported from all Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations around the world since joining the AP in 2006.