Nasrallah's murder gives rise to serious calculations

Israel's assassination of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah has shocked many in Lebanon and the region, regardless of what they think of the man and his organization. As a personality, Nasrallah's charisma was arguably equal to that of the late Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser, whose defeat in the 1967 war and death in 1970 sent shockwaves throughout the Arab world. It should be recalled that Nasser's death and the consequent blow to Arab nationalism ultimately led to the 1973 war between Egypt and Syria on the one hand and Israel on the other. This war, in turn, sparked a diplomatic push that culminated in the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty of 1979 and, over a decade later, the Wadi Araba peace treaty between Israel and Jordan in 1994. However, these peace agreements did not change the situation. There was general hostility towards Israel in the region, although they changed the strategic structure of the region and Arab regimes appeared to have abandoned the state of war with the Zionist state.

Instead, the regional strategic picture saw the advance of non-state actors. Following the expulsion of the Palestine Liberation Organization from Lebanon following the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, Hezbollah emerged as an organization dedicated to fighting Israel. A few years later, the Islamic resistance movement Hamas began to challenge the Israeli occupation, particularly in Gaza, and to compete for dominance in Palestine. Some two decades later, Ansar Allah in Yemen, also known as Houthis, and several Iranian-backed groups in Iraq showed a significant increase in non-state actors coalescing around an axis of resistance to Israeli occupation led by the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Nasrallah's assassination poses serious challenges to the Axis of Resistance, Arab regimes, and United States foreign policy alike.

There is no doubt that Hezbollah is already trying to get its house in order. The party has not yet chosen a replacement for Nasrallah, but Hashem Safieddine, the head of its politburo, is the strongest candidate for the post. Hezbollah will soon announce a new military strategy that will most likely focus on continuing the war with Israel. However, the party will certainly address the blatant security breaches that have led to the near decimation of its military and political leadership alongside Nasrallah. There is an obvious reliance on Western technology, which has had a negative impact on the party in recent weeks. Communications equipment has been used by Israel against party cadres to devastating effect, necessitating a shift to local and trusted manufacturers who can quickly deliver new equipment. The military strategy must also be accompanied by a long-term political strategy; Given the current strategic and political equation, what policy goals are realistically achievable both in the region and globally?

Arab regimes whose militaries have been effectively neutralized in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will have to reconsider their political goals for the future. Those regimes that have “normalized” their relations with Israel need to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of their recent decisions, as this normalization has not led to a restoration of Palestinian rights. Those regimes that have stayed away from the current conflict in the Levant between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah will have to reassess their role within the Arab League and the United Nations as they historically address what is happening to the Palestinians . Given the pervasive dissatisfaction with the seemingly general deterioration of Arab standing toward Israel, and the fact that Israel has a free hand in the Middle East with American help, many regimes may be concerned about internal upheavals orchestrated by now dormant social and political forces who want to eliminate past and current grievances.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, American foreign policy needs to be reevaluated—perhaps not just toward the Middle East, but globally. The Biden administration came into office with the stated goal of putting diplomacy first, but it performed poorly amid violent outbreaks in the Middle East and Ukraine. Relations with China are not promising, if looming confrontations in southern China waters are any indication. More importantly, Israel is on a war path and its right-wing government is eager to exploit recent military adventures to create a new order in an already troubled region. An American laissez-faire attitude toward Israel's ambitions is reckless and dangerous, not least for U.S. interests in the Middle East. The root cause of the problem in the recent outbreak of violence in the Levant remains the question of Palestine and the future of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and the occupied West Bank. A lasting solution to this problem requires new thinking in Washington and a firm commitment to make serious efforts to implement long-proposed peace plans and not just issue announcements and statements on peace timed to the timing of the upcoming elections.

The views expressed in this publication are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Arab Center Washington DC, its staff or its board of directors.