The Atlantic is alive: tropical development forecast

The National Hurricane Center is issuing warnings for Hurricane Kirk, which is over the eastern Atlantic. The Gulf Coast may face another tropical threat next week. Northwest Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extend from the southwest Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions may support gradual development with potential for tropical events Depression formation later this week or early next week as the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico. 48-Hour Probability of Formation: Low (0%) 7-Day Probability of Formation: Medium (40%) Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area are becoming more organized a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands . Conditions appear conducive to further development, making the formation of a tropical depression highly likely as the system moves westward. Education is likely in 48 hours: High (90%) Chance of creation over 7 days: High (90%) You can find the latest news in the video. OVERLOOKING THE GULF A weak area of ​​low pressure appears to be crossing the northern Gulf sometime between Thursday and Friday this week. Tropical moisture will be directed northward into Alabama, resulting in a spread of clouds and some disorganized showers. The weekend forecast looks good for now, but our next named storm could be brewing in the Gulf late this weekend. It's a potential problem for Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. Basically, anyone living on the Gulf Coast should pay attention. The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking Hurricane Kirk in the Atlantic. Kirk is expected to become a strong hurricane by midweek and would be the third “major” hurricane of the season. It currently poses no threat to the United States. Both major global forecast models (GFS and Europe) show a disorganized tropical system moving into the northern Gulf next Monday. The exact location and possible effects are currently unknown. A cold front is expected to move south into Alabama by Monday. This could help limit any potential tropical system confined to our south and eastern Gulf. We are still monitoring the pattern closely and would like you to check back to see how the forecast develops. What do we currently know? Models suggest that the system will have difficulty organizing itself. This can also make it difficult to predict the final destination of the system. There are two things we can say with great confidence at this point: “It will not be a repeat of Hurricane Helene.” This hurricane will not develop in an area where rapid intensification is likely like the wind shear patterns this weekend and Look out over the Gulf early next week. What are we waiting for? Later this week the situation will become clearer and we can confidently say who may or may not be standing in the way of this evolving system. We need to pay closer attention to where the upper low and ridge are and what role the jet stream will play. >> CURRENT NOAA HURRICANE OUTLOOK: Forecasting a very active Atlantic hurricane season. Click here to get the latest weather reports for your area. Stay up to date with notifications in the WVTM 13 app. You can download it here.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing warnings for Hurricane Kirk, which is over the eastern Atlantic. The Gulf Coast could face another tropical threat next week.

Northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico:

• Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extend from the southwestern Caribbean Sea to the southern Gulf of Mexico.
• Environmental conditions could support gradual development, with the possibility of tropical depression formation later this week or early next week as the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico.
  • Chance of creation within 48 hours: Low (0%)
  • Training opportunity over 7 days: Medium (40%)

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):

• A few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area are becoming increasingly organized.
• Conditions appear conducive to further development, making the formation of a tropical depression highly likely as the system moves westward.
  • Chance of creation within 48 hours: High (90%)
  • Training opportunity over 7 days: High (90%)

Check out the video for the latest.

KEEPING AN EYE ON THE GOLF

A weak area of ​​low pressure is expected to cross the northern Gulf sometime between Thursday and Friday this week. Tropical moisture will be directed northward into Alabama, resulting in a spread of clouds and some disorganized showers.

The weekend forecast looks good for now, but our next named storm could be brewing in the Gulf late this weekend. It is a potential problem for Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. Basically, anyone living on the Gulf Coast should pay attention.

The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking Hurricane Kirk in the Atlantic. Kirk is expected to become a strong hurricane by midweek and would be the third “major” hurricane of the season. It currently poses no threat to the United States.

Both major global forecast models (GFS and Europe) show a disorganized tropical system moving into the northern Gulf next Monday. The exact placement and possible effects are currently unknown.

A cold front is expected to move south into Alabama by Monday. This could help limit any potential tropical system confined to our south and eastern Gulf. We are still monitoring the pattern closely and would like you to check back as the forecast evolves.

What do we know now?

Models suggest it will be difficult for the system to organize. This can also make it difficult to predict the final destination of the system.

There are two things we can say with great confidence at this point:

1. That will be not be a repeat of Hurricane Helene.
2. That will be not are growing in an area where rapid intensification is likely, given what wind shear patterns look like over the Gulf this weekend and early next week.

What are we waiting for?

Later this week the situation will become clearer and we can say with confidence who may or may not be standing in the way of this evolving system. We need to pay closer attention to where the upper low and ridge are and what role the jet stream will play.

>> CURRENT NOAA HURRICANE OUTLOOK: Forecast of a very active Atlantic hurricane season

Click here to see the latest weather coverage for your area Here. Stay up to date with notifications in the WVTM 13 app. You can download it Here.