Fantasy Football Today: Stay ahead of the curve by starting Brian Thomas Jr. in Week 5

In four games, Brian Thomas Jr. has rushed for 275 yards and two touchdowns. He also averages 13.75 fantasy points per game. Currently, Thomas only starts in 32% of leagues, and Dave Richard believes that will change, especially after he had nine catches for 86 yards and a touchdown in a 24-20 loss to the Houston Texans in Week 4.

“That’s going to change,” Dave said. “He’s a great replacement for the bye week, and when the bye week is over, he could be a No. 2 wide receiver. He's the most explosive receiver the Jaguars have, but this week they finally, FINALLY stopped throwing.” “How crazy for Gabe Davis. He caught a two-yard touchdown early in the game.”

Dave is absolutely right in his assessment here. Thomas Jr. will have every opportunity to increase his profile as the season progresses, as he will likely be targeted for two reasons. Teams tend to be pass-happy when they fall behind, and given that they allow 361.7 yards per game (27th in the NFL), the Jaguars will likely find themselves in a shootout or coming from behind a lot this season play. Their inability to stop the defense paves the way for more plays like Thomas did last Sunday.

Thomas can manage a 14-foot 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds, but that's not necessarily the most impressive aspect of his game. What I like most about him is his ability to chase the catch. Although he only has 81 yards after catch so far this season, expect that number to improve as the season progresses. Despite his stature, he knows how to run behind his balls and miss defenders in traffic. While he will likely be used as the Jaguars' primary deep threat, look for him to be used more in the screen game to get the ball into his hands quickly.

Another reason he will continue to have success is that the Jaguars are not afraid to move him around the lineup. There are times when he's outside the numbers, in the slot, or in a tight split where he's the wide receiver closest to the offensive line. When lined up in tight formations, he is often required to cross lanes in obvious man-to-man situations, allowing him to use his speed to exploit the defense onto the opposing sideline, resulting in easy finishes. In his short time in the NFL, he has developed a much better sense of which windows to settle into against the zone and is often targeted due to his understanding of defenses and his ability after the catch.

Overall, Thomas is a very quarterback-friendly receiver who will slowly but surely develop into Trevor Lawrence's No. 1 option. The connection he forms with Lawrence is palpable and should only grow stronger in Week 5 against the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts pass defense has already given up 1,031 yards this season, which is the fifth-most in the NFL. They were recently torched by Justin Fields, who threw for 312 yards and a touchdown against their porous secondary. Thomas, coming into his own as an NFL receiver, could have a big day against the Colts in Week 5 as long as Trevor Lawrence has the time to get the ball to him.

Thomas is expected to average 13.4 fantasy points in Week 5 and average 10.12 fantasy points per game on the season. If he can stay healthy and develop at the pace he is currently at, he will surpass those numbers and eventually become what Dave thinks he will be: a solid No. 2 wide receiver in all leagues.

For more fantasy insight on how top fantasy players are trending ahead of Week 5, be sure to listen to the full FFT Week 4 Reaction Podcast.