Why Turkey sees an opportunity in the Iran-Israel fight – Firstpost

As the specter of conflict between Israel and Lebanon looms, Turkey is poised to play a precarious role in the unfolding dynamic. Historically, Ankara has sought to limit Iranian influence in the region while maintaining a complex relationship with Hezbollah, Iran's main proxy in Lebanon. As tensions escalate, Turkey's actions are being driven not only by its regional ambitions but also by its long-standing rivalry with Israel.

The historical context and current position of Türkiye

Turkey has traditionally been committed to building diplomatic relations with Lebanon, but has strategically kept Hezbollah at arm's length. This calculated distance reflects Ankara's broader interest in containing Tehran's influence. Following the October 7 terrorist attacks, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan adopted a clearly anti-Israel stance, signaling his willingness to exploit the situation to undermine Israel's position. Sinan Ciddi, a non-resident senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, notes that Erdogan's public statements since the attacks underscore Turkey's intention to stoke anti-Israel sentiment in the Islamic world.

On June 25, 2024, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan issued a strong warning to Cyprus regarding its support for Israel and accused Nicosia of acting as Israel's operational center. Fidan claimed that Turkey frequently receives information indicating that some countries are using the Greek Cypriot administration of southern Cyprus as a base for operations in Gaza. This demonstrates Turkey's desire to position itself as a protector of regional interests, particularly Hezbollah and Lebanon, while diplomatically isolating Israel.

Turkey's pragmatic approach to Iran and Hezbollah

Despite its strategic caution, Turkey's past actions reveal a complex relationship with Hezbollah and Iran. In January 2024, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on several Turkish companies for providing critical financial support to the networks used by Iran's Quds Force and Hezbollah. These sanctions highlight a worrying aspect of Turkey's foreign policy: its commercial engagement with designated terrorist organizations. Notably, in December 2022, Turkish citizen Sitki Ayan, who is closely linked to Erdogan, was sanctioned for facilitating the sale of Iranian oil, the proceeds of which benefited Iran's military and terrorist activities.

Türkiye's willingness to set aside these associations signals a pragmatic approach to regional alliances. While Ankara does not agree with Iran's broader regional ambitions, it is willing to work with any organization that can help reduce Israel's influence. Erdogan's outreach to Iran, including direct communication with former President Ebrahim Raisi, underscores Turkey's goal of uniting the Islamic world against Israel.

Stand in between?

One important possibility is for Turkey to send troops to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and station them along the Israel-Lebanese border. This move could serve multiple purposes: deterring Israeli military actions against Turkish forces while providing protection for Lebanon and Hezbollah. Ciddi suggests that Turkey could use this position to negotiate concessions with Iran, particularly regarding Syria and the return of Syrian refugees currently in Turkey.

However, the question remains: does Turkey have the diplomatic credibility to negotiate such an agreement? While Turkey's involvement could increase its influence in Lebanon, it is unclear whether Iran and Hezbollah would be willing to avoid conflict in return for Turkish support.

Impact of Turkey's Ambitions

Türkiye's maneuvers in the face of escalating tensions need to be carefully examined. Erdogan's government appears less interested in promoting peace and more focused on facilitating Israel's humiliation on the international stage. Ragip Soylu by Eye of the Middle East points out that Turkey's measured response to the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah suggests a cautious approach to Iran as it seeks to balance Tehran's influence in the region.

Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution adds that while Turkey's support for Hezbollah is tempered by its Sunni identity and past grievances, the weakening of Iran and its proxies could ultimately create opportunities for Turkey to gain greater influence both in Syria and Syria to exercise in Iraq. Erdogan's delicate balancing act will therefore remain crucial as the conflict continues.