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Best bets for game 3

Jose Quintana was off the hook at the end of the regular season and will keep Milwaukee's bats in check on the mound in Game 3.

Oct 3, 2024 • 2:06 pm ET

• 4 min reading

Jose Quintana New York Mets MLB

Photo by – USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers meet tonight in the final game of their three-game NL Wild Card Series.

Playoff baseball tends to produce the best star players, and my favorite MLB player in this showdown is backing All-Star Francisco Lindor William Contreras while highlighting the dominance of Jose Quintana.

Be sure to check out our Mets vs. Brewers predictions before the opener!

Mets vs. Brewers props for Game 3

Today's best Mets vs. Brewers props

Prop Bet #1: Jose Quintana under 2.5 earned runs

-135 at bet365

Jose Quintana enters the postseason with plenty of momentum, having posted a sizzling 0.74 ERA and 0.197 OBA in his last six appearances.

Quintana faced the Milwaukee Brewers in his final start of the regular season, allowing two runs and fanning a season-high nine batters before getting caught in the middle of the fifth inning. The Brewers have struggled with the dish over the last month, ranking 28th in the majors in batting average (.219) with an OPS of .658.

Because of the short leashes these starters are on, Books has been reluctant to release pitcher outs props in the postseason. However, shorter stints by pitchers also offer good opportunities for unders in other categories. That makes me want to use the earned runs under 2.5 for Quintana to start my MLB picks.

Prop Bet #2: Francisco Lindor over 0.5 RBIs

+200 on FanDuel

Francisco Lindor finished the regular season hitting .273/.344/.500 and led the New York Mets in runs (107) and RBI (91) in 152 games. The three-time Silver Slugger winner started the season slowly but really took off in the last two months, slashing .320/.376/.580.

The Brewers send rookie Tobias Myers to the mound for Game 3. Myers posted an impressive 3.00 ERA in 25 starts, but his expected ERA is significantly worse at 4.11.

Myers is in the bottom 25th percentile in ground ball rate and average exit velocity, which is bad news against a hard hitter like Lindor.

Prop Bet #3: William Contreras Over 0.5 Walks

-105 at bet365

William Contreras is one of the best hitters in the world, and his feel for the ball (and intimidation factor from opposing pitchers) has led to numerous walks. Contreras ranked eighth in the majors with 78 walks in 155 games, and his walk rate (11.5%) is in the top 10th percentile.

Quintana has had issues with control and his 8.8% walk rate goes up to 9.7% against righties like Contreras. Likewise, Contreras receives more free passes when he has the platoon advantage, with his walk rate increasing to 13.6%.

New York's bullpen also has control issues, with Mets relievers ranking 28th in the majors overall in walk rate (10.7%). Whether it's a freebie from Quintana or another NY hurler, I like Contreras' chances of getting a free pass tonight.

Not intended for use in MA.
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Given his experience as a football, rugby and boxing player, as well as a degree in journalism, it is no surprise that Rohit became interested in the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where eyeball testing can reveal much more about matchups than any analysis. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games, as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He is also the CFL's resident expert and previously hosted “The Chez and Ro Show” with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

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