Florida must prepare for heavy rain and flooding

(This story has been updated to add new information.)

The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of a low pressure system developing in the Gulf of Mexico.

According to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center, a tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form early to mid-next week, depending on environmental conditions.

Regardless of developments, the system is expected to produce heavy rainfall across much of the Florida Peninsula late this weekend and into next week. This is particularly bad news for areas still recovering from the damage – including flooding and storm surge – left by Hurricane Helene.

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Regardless of whether it is a named storm or not, the system will bring heavy rain to the Florida Peninsula starting Sunday through about next week, Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.

Several areas across Florida are still recovering from Category 4 Hurricane Helene on September 26. Hurricane Helene made landfall at 11:10 p.m. on September 26 east of the mouth of the Aucilla River, 10 miles west-southwest of Perry

According to NOAA, the Category 4 storm is among the most intense to hit the United States, with winds of up to 140 miles per hour.

What is the potential tropical threat to Florida?

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico are associated with a low pressure trough.

A widespread low pressure area is expected to form over the southwest or south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Gradual development is possible thereafter as the low slowly moves east or northeast.

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A tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form early to mid-next week if the low remains separated from a frontal boundary that is expected to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rainfall could occur over parts of Mexico over the next few days and over parts of the Florida Peninsula late this weekend and into next week.

Chance of development within 48 hours: low, close to 0 percent.
Chance of education over 7 days: medium, 40 percent.

Is a hurricane coming to Florida?

The National Hurricane Center's latest warning says a tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form early to mid-next week.

“While the exact path and intensity of the feature unfolding in the Gulf remains to be determined, Florida will bear the brunt this time,” said Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather's chief on-air meteorologist. “At this point, intensity will range from a widespread tropical rainstorm to perhaps the impact of a more compact, full-blown hurricane.”

“Two major energy sources are likely to drive development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in the coming days,” said Alex DaSilva, senior hurricane expert at AccuWeather. “One piece is moving westward from the Caribbean, and the other piece is associated with a tropical depression near Mexico in the eastern Pacific.”

“Should development occur in the southwestern Gulf and move along a narrow east-northeast path toward the Florida Peninsula, there is time and potential for the phenomenon to develop into a tropical storm and hurricane,” DaSilva said.

“While something “If a hurricane is likely to form over the Gulf over the weekend, it likely will not be a dense, well-organized hurricane, and it may not technically be a tropical storm or depression,” Truchelut said Wednesday.

When might Florida feel impacts from the Gulf of Mexico system?

There are two different scenarios that AccuWeather presents:

Scenario 1: The system remains disorganized, making a hurricane unlikely, but heavy rain is expected Monday night and Tuesday.
Scenario 2: The system organizes and allows a hurricane. Damaging winds, flooding and storm surges are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday.

A large area of precipitation will likely spread east and northeast of the low's broad center, Truchelut said. This precipitation will likely reach the immediate northern Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula by late weekend.

Impact: Florida could see between 3 and 30 inches of rain

Even though the Gulf system doesn't get a name, Floridians have to prepare for rain, and lots of it.

“A series of torrential rains will flood Florida, particularly the central and southern portions of the peninsula, next week,” AccuWeather said. “Rain will likely fall over a period of several days unless a more powerful hurricane forms. In this case, the heaviest rain may be concentrated in one day but could be intense.”

“The risk of flooding rainfall will increase over the remainder of this weekend and continue into the middle of next week depending on the intensity and forward speed of the event. Some locations could see several inches to a foot or more of rain. The heaviest precipitation will likely fall from Interstate 4 south to the Keys. The AccuWeather Local StormMax precipitation is 30 inches for this setup,” AccuWeather said.

Should the system actually develop into a tropical storm or hurricane, storm surges and damaging winds are also expected.

“The designation, or lack thereof, does not mean there will be no impacts: tropical or not, eventual precipitation accumulations will likely be severe across central and southern Florida,” Truchelut said.

South and central Florida are expected to see 3 inches or more of rain between Sunday and Tuesday, Truchelut said, with the possibility of widespread higher totals if the storm continues into midweek or beyond.

The Florida Public Radio Emergency Network predicted rainfall totals of:

Florida must prepare for heavy rain and flooding

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