Reds hire Terry Francona: Three factors that could help Cincinnati achieve a turnaround like the Royals and Tigers in 2025

In a surprise move, the Cincinnati Reds have signed Terry Francona as their new manager, giving him a three-year contract with the club's option for a fourth spot.

Francona, a two-time World Series champion, will be the second skipper in recent years to return from a short-lived retirement, joining Texas Rangers coach Bruce Bochy. Francona only retired from the Cleveland Guardians at the end of the 2023 season, citing personal health concerns.

“I need to go home and get healthy and see what I miss about the game,” Francona said at the time. “I don’t think I can do it again.”

The Reds, who fired former coach David Bell at the end of the season, can only hope to continue the arc that the Guardians outlined after Francona was hired before the 2013 season.

Keep in mind that Cleveland was fresh off a 94-game losing streak, extending its playoff drought to five straight years when they turned to Francona. He then led them to a record of 92 wins and a playoff berth. Francona's charm remained throughout most of his 11 seasons at the helm of Cleveland, and he finished his career with the Guardians having won 54.9% of his regular season games and the 2016 American League pennant.

Although the Reds haven't made the playoffs in a full season since 2013 (they made the pandemic postseason in 2020), they won't need the same amount of magic. The Reds have won at least 47% of their games in four of the last five years, including their 77-85 mark this season, and finished fourth in the NL Central. In comparison, that should make Francona's turnaround job a little easier.

So what has to go right for Francona to lead the Reds to the playoffs? Here's a first look at three factors worth watching.

1. More happiness

Throwing around words like “luck” can cause problems in baseball analysis. If you're not careful, it becomes a crutch to explain everything away when there's no obvious reason. In the case of Cincinnati, we certainly use the term “luck” with confidence in several ways some of which will balance out over the next 12 months.

First of all, the Reds probably deserve a better fate in 2024 than their record suggests. They finished the year with a run differential of plus-5, a Pythagorean winning percentage of .500. For comparison, that was 52 runs better than the St. Louis Cardinals, who finished more than a handful of games ahead of the Reds in the standings. There are some glaring deficiencies that can cause a team to legitimately underperform its run differential – a leaky bullpen, for example – but the Reds lacked these.

Additionally, the Reds certainly appear to have better availability next season – something Francona will certainly benefit from without having to do… well, anything.

Baseball Prospectus' data suggests players have missed more than 1,500 games due to injuries. The Los Angeles Dodgers, the most injured team in the majors, reported just over 1,800 players. Breakout outfielder TJ Friedl, who received MVP votes in 2023, was limited to 85 games due to various ailments; second baseman Matt McLain was out all year; and so on and so forth.

This does not yet take into account the suspension for infielder Noelvi Marté. He was suspended for 80 games after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug. He was putrid when he returned, with the dismissal probably playing a role in his poor performance. Given his track record and pedigree, one can assume he has better days ahead. At least Marté Francona should be available, which means more than for Bell.

Speaking of which….

2. Internal improvements

Marté wasn't the only young Reds player to disappoint in 2024.

Fellow infielder Christian Encarnacion-Strand was terrible in 29 games before suffering a season-ending injury; Outfielder Will Benson couldn't maintain his momentum from his breakout year; Lefty Nick Lodolo was on the wrong side of a league-average ERA; and so forth. Some of the Reds' best young players, like right-hander Hunter Greene and shortstop Elly De La Cruz, have made strides this year. Many others didn't, and that's a problem for an organization that reliably ranks in the bottom half of the majors in Opening Day payroll.

Now it's up to Francona to get the best out of his young players – just as he did in Cleveland, where he oversaw the rise of Francisco Lindor and José Ramírez, among others.

Francona needs to get it right for the Reds to reach the same heights as the Guardians. He will certainly have plenty of opportunities to do this in the coming years. Right-hander Rhett Lowder debuted late in the season and should be a staple in Cincinnati's rotation. Fellow right guard Chase Petty doesn't appear to be too far away either, and the Reds could well expedite their first-round pick Chase Burns, making him an obvious candidate for a summer debut after he gets some professional experience.

3. External opportunism

The main reason teams like to employ young players is because they are cheaper than their experienced counterparts. So clubs like the Reds have an additional incentive to do well – a good, cheap core allows them to spend the savings on complementary pieces.

As it stands, the Reds will have at most a handful of players making more than $5 million next season. In return, the Reds should have enough financial flexibility to add a few veterans, whether through free agency or through a trade – similar to how the Guardians signed Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn after signing Francona in the 2012-13 season . What exactly that means for these Reds will become clear over the next few months. What is that? should That means the Reds will be able to add reinforcements — perhaps in the outfield, perhaps at first base and perhaps on the pitching staff.

Nobody expects the Reds to become the Midwest Padres. However, some opportunistic additions could have them wanting to compete next spring and become the next Kansas City Royals or Detroit Tigers. Whether this vision comes to fruition or not…check back next spring. But for now, at least they have a manager who has been in these waters before and knows how to get them where they want to go.