Houston vs. TCU Prediction and Best Bets – NCAAF Tips for Week 6

Houston vs TCU Prediction

My best choice
Houston team under 16.5 points overall (+110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
Willie Fritz's concern when he took over this squad was how much offensive turnover there was. Houston had to replace four starting offensive players from last season as well as its top two receivers. The latter concern, while less worrying for Fritz, did to some extent worsen the problems ahead.

Fritz is stubborn in some ways. Even when he has a strong team, he puts so much emphasis on the running game that it can be concerning. Tulane had a strong passing game last year and ranked 34th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback. Meanwhile, the Green Wave had a hitless rushing game, ranking 105th nationally in EPA per rush and 89th in rushing success rate. Still, Tulane passed the ball 2.9% more often than the average team at any given stage of the game.

Fritz should have concentrated on the pass, but that's not his way of training.

That stubbornness was always going to be a problem on this Cougars' roster, a squad that lacked significant rushing assets. Not surprisingly, Houston ranks 114th in EPA per rush and 126th in rushing success rate. What's frustrating is that the Cougars rank 107th in the frequency with which they rush, 6.7% more often than expected. pro cfb graphics at collegefootballinsiders.com.

That is the disease. Houston's worst offensive symptoms are its inability to create quality drives. He does this on just 17.5% of possessions, the worst in the country, and he scores a paltry 1.77 points per quality drive, 132nd in the country.

These symptoms and this illness are the reason the Cougars failed to score in their last two games and scored just 19 points total against the top four defenses they faced, excluding Rice and its No. 108 defense current SP+ ratings.

Houston vs. TCU Same Game Parlay (SGP)

Houston team under 16.5 overall

Under 51.5

TCU -15.5

As bad as Houston's offense is, it makes TCU look like a juggernaut. However, the truth is that the Horned Frogs are only offensively good, not great. And it may take a lot of time to get this game over 51 points when the Cougars can only count on single digits.

The latter idea is not an exaggeration. TCU's defense is a few notches better than UNLV and Cincinnati, two teams that combined to hold Houston to seven total points, the best comparisons for what could come Friday night.

Fritz is a defense-first coach and he will find a way to avoid complete defeat. That's one of the reasons he insists on running the ball to shorten the game. So the Houston Frogs won't be able to break 40 on their own, although even just 20 points could cover that lead for TCU.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Houston vs TCU odds

Houston vs TCU live odds

Houston vs. TCU opening odds

• Houston vs TCU spread: TCU -17
• Houston vs. TCU Moneyline: Houston +550, TCU -800
• Houston vs. TCU Over/Under: 49.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Houston vs. TCU spread and over/under analysis

• TCU entered Sunday's game as a 17-point favorite, and that line has shifted on the hook toward Houston, as silly as that may seem. Some sportsbooks have considered moving higher, only to return to -16.5.
• The total was at 52.5 at the start of Sunday's market and quickly fell to 49.5. On Tuesday it rose again to 50.5 and then to 51.5.
• The increase in point total while keeping the spread the same should be viewed as confidence in TCU, considering all five of Houston's games this season have been under their point total, by an average of 16.9 points.

Houston vs. TCU betting trend worth knowing

The Cougars fell short of their team record in three of five games this season, with two exceptions: a snag against Oklahoma and a loss against Rice. Find more college football betting trends for Houston vs. TCU.

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