UFC 307 Predictions – MMA Fights

UFC 307 feels like a stophap in a way.

Fair, one has to say that there is nothing wrong with the title fights offered on Saturday. Yes, Alex Pereira should be fighting Magomed Ankalaev, but Khalil Rountree Jr. has done more than enough to warrant a title shot, and stylistically, this main event promises to be a crowd-pleaser.

And yes, Julianna Peña returning to a title against Raquel Pennington after nearly 800 days on the sidelines for the title? Norma Dumont? The matchmakers work with what they have.

But if we're being honest with ourselves, what we want to see is Pereira take care of business, Pennington and Peña settle their beef without controversy, and Harrison impress enough in her main card bout against Ketlen Vieira to set up the most intriguing women's Bantamweight title fight since Peña's rematch with Nunes.

So cross your thumb, nothing strange happens.

What: UFC 307

Where: Delta Center in Salt Lake City

When: Saturday, October 5th. Early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. ET with three fights on ESPN+. The four-fight preliminary card begins at 8 pm ET on ESPN+ and ESPNews, followed by the five-fight main card at 10 pm ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.

(Numbers in brackets indicate MMA Fighting's global rankings And Pound-for-pound rankingIngs)

Alex Pereira (1, P4P-2) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (10)

Knockout's Alex Pereira. Completed.

Now that we've gotten past that predictable prediction, let's explore a few less likely scenarios for the sake of entertainment.

1. Khalil Rountree turns the tables on “Poatan,” befuddling him in the standup for one or two rounds before smoking him with a no-doubt KO shot to shock the world. I mean, he's called “The Glory Killer” for a reason and there's no bigger former Glory star right now than Pereira.
2. Pereira and Rountree battle tooth-and-nail for 25 minutes, giving us one of the best fights of the year—nay, all time, with the victor narrowly eking out a decision win. It's hard to imagine these two throwing for five rounds and not landing a doomsday hit, but you never know.
3. Pereira fools everyone by mixing up martial arts, channeling his mentor Glover Teixeira and taking Rountree to the mat at will. This DI All-American/ADCC Champion hybrid version of Pereira grinds his way to a 50-45 win on the cards, much to the confusion of the gathered Utahns.

There's a Sick Party of Me That Wants To See Scenario 3 Unfold, but i've never bee one to pick a long shot, so let's play it safe and season the champ finishes rountree in the second to set heelf up for a huge matchup in 2025.

Choose: Pereira

Raquel Pennington (2, P4P-9) vs. Julianna Peña

Julianna Peña recently told MMA Junkie that she doesn't believe in altitude training because the past two times she competed at elevation in Colorado and in Utah, she didn't feel any ill effects. Maybe someone should remind her that she lost both fights?

Peña essentially swims to Atlantis to fight Aquaman.

Admittedly, Raquel Pennington doesn't exactly give off Jason Momoa vibes, but I'm not sure that's a requirement to beat Peña. “The Venezuelan Vixen” will want to apply pressure to get a win, but Pennington has rarely been overwhelmed by an opponent other than Amanda Nunes. And Peña is not Nunes.

The good news is I think this stylistic matchup will prove to be more entertaining than Pennington's fight with Mayra Bueno Silva (what a high bar) and we should have a definite winner in the end, so we can move on to Pennington vs. Harrison ( Spoiler!).

Pennington by decision.

Choose: Pennington

Jose Aldo (7) versus Mario Bautista

It will be somehow strange how Jose Aldo and Mario Bautista in this current generation of lighter fighters correspond to so much of Aldos DNA from Aldo. Bautista was in high school when top-rated Aldo was tearing up WEC and UFC competitions. Now he has to put the best down to ever do it.

This is an unfair comparison, but the fact is that Aldo has only lost against the very best. Merab Dvalishvili. Peter Yan. Marlon Moraes. Alexander Volkanovski. Max Holloway. Conor McGregor. With the exception of the defeat against Moraes (the shortest decision you can find), these are all UFC champions. Bautista is great, but a future UFC champion? I'm skeptical.

I could be looking at this all wrong. Perhaps their fight signals both the emergence of Bautista as a true contender and a clear picture of Aldo's current ceiling. But Bautista hasn't yet proven himself against the elite competition. So if anyone needs a reality check, it's him. Going from Benito Lopez, Guido Cannetti, Da'Mon Blackshear and a mindless Ricky Simon to Aldo will give Bautista some serious whiplash.

Look for Aldo to get just a little sharper and smarter on his way to an entertaining decision win.

Choose: Aldo

Kayla Harrison (1, P4P-12) vs. Ketlen Vieira (4)

Kayla Smash!

We talk all the time about how athleticism is a cheat code, and that's just one reason why Kayla Harrison is expected to destroy Ketlen Vieira. When you add in a work ethic that's in the 99th percentile, you can see why many fans are just counting the days until she has UFC gold around her waist.

Vieira is not child's play, we should be aware of that. Apart from a disappointing performance against Irene Aldana, Vieira has prevailed with the best and wins over the former champions Holly Holm and Miesha Tate as well as the unique title challengers Cat Zingano and Sara Mcmann. She is an absolutely respectable candidate to the B level.

But Harrison has been a prime contender since Day 1, and if her win over Holly Holm is any indication, she's at or near the peak of her powers. That's bad news for Vieira, who will test Harrison early before ultimately succumbing to an unstoppable force.

Choose: Harrison

Roman Dolidze (14) against Kevin Holland

Roman Dolidze should have just stayed at light heavyweight, right?

He'd be giving up size, but coming off a short-notice decision over Anthony Smith, the 36-year-old Georgian was realistically only a couple of wins away from a title shot in a thin division. The middleweight division has been far more competitive in recent years and in Kevin Holland, Dolidze isn't even fighting a true 185. On the other hand, maybe like in Holland, it is just about redeeming the checks and going home to the family. Respect.

Holland has made progress with its strong defense, but I can imagine that Dolidze takes advantage of this once fatal weakness and decides to push Holland onto the screen. Dolidze can be beaten, so Holland's exciting tributary could lead him to a win if it stays on his feet. Calling a difficult matchup.

I don't like how much size Holland gives up in this division, and I think it will be doomed. Dolidze mixes powerful punches with timely tackles to put Holland on the cards and jump back into the middleweight contender pool.

Choose: Dolidze

Preliminary rounds

Stephen Thompson (10) def. Joaquin Buckley (15)

Marina Rodriguez (7) defeated. Iasmin Lucindo (14)

Cesar Almeida defeated. Ihor Potieria

Alexander Hernandez defeated. Austin Hubbard

Ryan Spann defeated. Ovince Saint Preux

Carla Esparza defeated. Tecia Pennington

Court McGee defeated. Tim means