Georgia vs. Auburn Prediction: Who Will Win and Why?

The Deep South's oldest rivalry begins between the hedgerows this weekend when No. 5 Georgia hosts Auburn on Saturday in Week 6 of college football, with both teams looking to bounce back from losses. Let’s check out our updated prediction for the game.

Things could have been worse for Georgia last week when they fell behind by four touchdowns early at Alabama, but Carson Beck and the offense rallied in the second half to take a three-point lead late before the Tide stormed back and through one touchdown won.

As a result, Georgia lost the first of three key road tests this season, with dates at Texas and Ole Miss and a home game against Tennessee in the future.

Auburn has lost 2 of its last 3 with an 0-2 start in SEC play after losses to Arkansas and Oklahoma and, despite some costly offensive mistakes, still ranks 25th nationally in passing efficiency and has scored over 33 points per game so far Allowing under 19s on defense.

What can we expect in this matchup? Here's what to watch for as Georgia and Auburn renew their rivalry with our updated prediction for the game.

1. Sales. Payton Thorne is back at QB1 after being out of the job for a while, but the Auburn quarterback has thrown 6 interceptions in 4 games, including the game-losing pick-six against OU last weekend.

Auburn ranks last in the FBS as a team with an abysmal turnover margin of minus-11, while it is the second-worst team with a margin of minus-2.2 per game and 15 total turnovers.

Despite Georgia's overall excellent defensive play, the unit has so far failed to take the ball away from opponents, ranking 96th nationally with just 2 picks and 4 takeaways total.

2nd third down. When Auburn can keep the ball, it can actually make some noise on offense, ranking 8th nationally with 7.64 yards per play. Thorne poses a mobility challenge for Georgia's defense as he has rushed for 125 yards and 2 touchdowns this season.

And in last year's game against Georgia, he had a 62-yard rushing touchdown with 92 total yards on the ground.

That helped Auburn start a strong 49th in the national rankings on money downs, converting third downs 44 percent of the time, which was 22 of 50 attempts. Georgia ranks 63rd in third-down defense, allowing opponents to move the chains on 19 of 52 attempts, a success rate of 36.54 percent.

Georgia ranks just 107th in the FBS in third-down offense and converted 16 of its 48 attempts (33.33 percent). This came after the team led the nation in that category a year ago. Auburn has allowed teams to convert on 27 of 77 third-down attempts (35.06 percent).

3. Make the barrel. The need to throw the ball early and often last week resulted in Georgia being unable to build its usual offensive momentum, instead having to rely too heavily on Carson Beck to dig the team out of an early big hole led to four costly turnovers and one turnover, drawing attention away from trying to dominate the line of scrimmage.

Trevor Etienne is Georgia's biggest rushing threat so far, rushing for 55 yards last week, and in the absence of Roderick Robinson due to injury, the offense is relying more on Cash Jones, a solid third-down back who can catch passes and one of them is The better pass blockers Georgia has in the backfield.

Most analytical models project the Bulldogs to face the Tigers this week.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Georgia is expected to win the game in the overwhelming 91.3 percent of recent computer simulations.

That leaves Auburn as the expected winner in the remaining 8.7 percent of Sims.

According to the model's latest projection, Georgia is projected to be 21.1 points better than Auburn with the current makeup of both teams on the same field.

More… Georgia vs. Auburn Prediction: What the Analytics Say

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Georgia is a 22-point favorite against Auburn.

FanDuel listed the total score for the game at 52.5 points.

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -2000 for Georgia and +1100 for Auburn.

So far, a majority of bettors are expecting the Bulldogs to get back on track this Saturday, according to the latest spread consensus recommendations.

About 56 percent of bets assume Georgia will win the game and cover the spread.

The remaining 44 percent of bets assume Auburn will keep the game within the line.

Slow starts have characterized Georgia's offense so far this season, scoring just one touchdown in the first half of games against Power Four opponents.

But after last week's near-debacle at Alabama, the Bulldogs are in a mood to get aggressive and carve a clearer path moving forward.

Auburn's defense is good, but not great, and doesn't have many credible playmakers who can realistically disrupt Georgia at the line.

Many of Auburn's problems on offense stem from its inability to control time of possession, instead relying on short drives and not giving its defense time to get off the field.

Georgia's front seven has the power to upset Thorne in the pocket, preventing him from building early momentum with its good receivers and forcing him into some of Auburn's many turnovers.

College football headquarters chooses…

More.. Georgia vs Auburn Score Prediction by Expert Model

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC Network

–

The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: Top 25 rankings | schedule | teams

Follow College Football Headquarters: bookmark | Rankings | Selection