MLB NLDS predictions, tips, props

The Wild Card Round of the 2024 MLB Playoffs was all about the underdogs, as three teams defied the odds with victories en route to advancing to their respective division series.

Two underdogs (Tigers and Royals) even advanced with a series win, while the Mets took their fans on a rollercoaster ride after blowing a 3-2 lead in the eighth inning of Game 2, but then rallying after a 2-0 win ninth inning recovered the deficit in Game 3 to win, 4-2.

Now the Mets face the Phillies in the NLDS, a series that begins Saturday (4:08 p.m. ET, FOX). The Phillies, who won the regular-season series 7-6, will start ace Zack Wheeler in Game 1.

We've identified a best bet that offers value in Saturday's first game.

Mets vs Phillies odds

Mets vs Phillies Prediction

The Mets pulled off a surprise in Game 1 against Wheeler by announcing that Kodai Senga, who made just one start this season (July 26) and threw 5 1/3 innings because of a calf strain, would get the ball.

With the second-best odds to win the NL Cy Young Award (+1000, DraftKings), there is no doubt that Wheeler is a premier pitcher.

However, it wasn't exactly a one-sided affair for the Phillies when he took the mound against the Mets.

In his 15 career starts against the Amazins, Philadelphia is 7-8 in a row for a loss of 2.82 units.

The Mets have been very familiar with Wheeler since his move within the division to Philadelphia. In 171 at-bats, this current Mets roster is hitting .281 with a .421 shooting percentage.

Wheeler is known for his ability to be economical with his pitches and last well into games. So the longer he throws, the more likely the Mets are to scatter some hits.

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That was the case in his start on September 22, where he went seven innings but gave up seven hits, including a home run by Brandon Nimmo.

That extended his streak of six or more hits in his last six starts against the Mets, and since he'll be rested, don't expect Phillies manager Rob Thompson to give him a quick hook unless he implodes.

Best bet: Mets record over 4.5 hits against Zack Wheeler (-110, DraftKings)

Why should you trust New York Post Betting?

For the New York Post, Michael Arinze hinders most major sports. He has won two 15-leg teasers and a 12-leg parlay in his betting career, which spanned eight games of the Little League World Series. Most recently, he precisely selected the finalists for the 2024 European Championship and the Copa América.