Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley Pick, Oct 5, 2024 Predictions UFC 307 Odds

Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley

UFC 307

Delta Center in Salt Lake City

Saturday, October 5, 2024

Stephen Thompson will face Joaquin Buckley in the Octagon at UFC 307 on Saturday, October 5, 2024. In the opening game, Thompson is priced at +164 while Buckley is priced at -198.

Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson enters the Octagon with a mark of 17-7-1. The 41-year-old fights at 170 pounds. and measures 6 feet 0 inches. The Orthodox Fighter is 75 inches long. Joaquin “New Mansa” Buckley stands 5' 10″ and weighs 170 pounds. The southpaw enters the Octagon with a mark of 19-6-0. The 30-year-old measures 76″. When it comes to significant strikes, Stephen Thompson lands 4.11 significant strikes per minute, while Joaquin Buckley lands 4.25 significant strikes per minute. Thompson is landing 46% of the significant hits he attempts and Buckley is hitting on 36%. When it comes to defense in the cage, “Wonderboy” requires 3.03 significant strikes per minute, while “New Mansa” requires 3.12. Thompson also blocks 54% of the significant shots his opponents throw his way, and Buckley stops 58% of the shots thrown his way.

When it comes to grappling, Stephen Thompson is the less experienced grappler as he averages a takedown 0.26 times per 15 minutes. Thompson gets his opponent to the mat on 41% of his attempts and stops 65% of his opponents' takedowns. Buckley completes his takedown attempts on 44% of his takedown attempts and stuffs 69% of all takedown attempts against him. When it comes to substitutions, Thompson is the more skilled fighter, attempting 0.5 submissions per third, while Buckley attempts 0.3 submissions per third.

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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Stephen Thompson faced Shavkat Rakhmonov and was on the losing side of that fight via rear naked choke in round 2. Rakhmonov landed 73 of the 88 total punches he delivered in the fight. Thompson finished this fight with 26 of 37 total hits. When it came to significant hits, Rakhmonov ended up landing 28 of 36, giving him a 77% rate. He ended up landing 24 of 31 significant punches aimed at the head. On the other side of the octagon, Thompson landed 64% of his significant punches, landing 16 of 25. Of all the significant punches he landed, 6 out of 15 were targeted to the head. 17% of Rakhmonov's significant attacks and 81% of Thompson's were made from distance.

In Joaquin Buckley's last Octagon appearance, he fought Nursulton Ruziboev and ultimately won that fight via unanimous decision in round 3. Ruziboev landed 74% of the significant punches he attempted from distance, and Buckley landed significant distance punches on 17% of his punches. In the end, Buckley landed 55% of his significant scoring attempts, hitting 86 of 156 shots. In the end, he landed 70 of 137 significant hits aimed at the head. Ruziboev scored 31 of 72 significant goals in the competition. In terms of accuracy of the decisive blows, he ended up landing 17 out of 46 blows aimed at the head. When looking at the total number of punches attempted in this fight, Ruziboev ended up landing 43 of 87 punches, while Buckley landed 113 of 187 of all the punches he threw.

Other fights on the card to watch out for

Another fight you shouldn't miss is the duel between Cesar Almeida and Ihor Potieria. Almeida has a career mark of 5-1-0. The 36-year-old weighs 185 pounds. and measures 6' 1″. The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 74″. Potieria is 6 feet tall and weighs 185 pounds. The southpaw will look to add a win to his 20-6-0 record. The 28-year-old stands at 75 inches. In grappling, Cesar Almeida averages takedowns 0.60 times per 3 rounds and Ihor Potieria takes his opponents to the canvas 0.40 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to hitting, Almeida lands 4.25 punches per minute and connects on 61% of his shot attempts. On the other side of the cage we have Ihor Potieria, who is landing 50% of his attempted punches, landing 5.13 per minute.

Another must-watch fight tonight is when Ovince Saint Preux takes on Ryan Spann. Spann enters the Octagon with a record of 21-10-0. The 33-year-old will fight at 205 pounds. and measures 6 feet 5 inches. The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 79 inches. Saint Preux measures 1.80 meters and weighs 90 kilograms. The southpaw will look to add a win to his career record of 27-17-0. The 41-year-old has a reach of 80 inches. . When it comes to takedowns, Ryan Spann stops 47% of his opponents' takedown attempts and puts his opponents on the canvas on 35% of his attempts. Saint Preux completes his takedowns on 36% of his attempts and stops 67% of his opponents' takedowns. When it comes to striking, Spann averages 3.89 strikes per minute while throwing out 3.25 strikes per minute. In addition, Saint Preux requires 3.32 beats per minute and connects 3.03 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's pick: Take Joaquin Buckley (-198)

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