How do surprises affect the ranking?

Unrest involving some of the biggest names in the US LBM Coaches Poll is likely to lead to a major shakeup at the top of this week's Top 25.

There were not one, not two, not three, but four teams in the top 10 that fell on a Saturday that seemed mundane before play began.

No. 2 Alabama lost to Vanderbilt. No. 4 Tennessee lost at Arkansas. No. 9 Missouri was overwhelmed by No. 21 Texas A&M. No. 10 Michigan lost at Washington.

The only certain thing in this week's poll, scheduled to be released around noon on Sunday, is that Texas will remain No. 1. The Longhorns were on the road Saturday heading into next weekend's rivalry game against No. 17 Oklahoma.

Almost no one can guess what will happen next. Here's our best guess at what the top 10 will look like when the new poll is released:

1. Texas (5-0)

The Longhorns will undoubtedly be the No. 1 seed after sharing first-place votes with Alabama. Texas appeared to be among the best teams in the country, but can't afford to take Oklahoma lightly, despite the Sooners' struggles in the transition to the SEC.

2. Ohio State (5-0)

The Buckeyes passed an early test against Iowa after a slow start with two turnovers in the first half and another turnover on downs. But things changed after the Buckeyes began leaning on an incredible receiver corps led by veteran Emeka Egbuka and standout freshman Jeremiah Smith. Egbuka scored three points in the 35-7 win.

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3. Georgia (4-1)

The loss to Alabama looks a little worse, although that's not a big deal for Georgia's playoff hopes in the long run. The big question in this week's poll is how voters feel about the comparison between the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide. In the end, Alabama won the head-to-head game but lost to Vanderbilt, and only the second part cannot be overlooked.

4. Oregon (5-0)

The Ducks had no problems against Michigan State and remained on track for an undefeated-on-undefeated matchup against Ohio State next Saturday. A win there wouldn't necessarily move Oregon to No. 1 in the poll, but one could easily imagine the Ducks moving up to No. 2 and replacing the Buckeyes as the top-ranked team in the Big Ten. You might even see the Ducks overtake Georgia and finish at No. 3, but that three-point jump after beating the Spartans might be too generous.

5. Penn State (5-0)

The Nittany Lions didn't play full 60-minute games in recent wins over Illinois and UCLA, playing close in the first half against both opponents before eventually pulling away in the second half. This raises concerns for the early November game against Ohio State, for example. But Penn State still appears to be one of the safest bets for an at-large playoff bid.

6. Miami (6-0)

Miami's ridiculous comeback in California leaves the Hurricanes among the few undefeated Power Four teams and the top-ranked team in the ACC. On a Saturday where nearly every major rival was pushed to the limit as the favorite, Miami should be given some credit for surviving this road test.

7. Alabama (4-1)

The Tide's failure to fall out of the top 10 is entirely thanks to the win against Georgia. There are some other wins that look good, including a road win against Wisconsin, but the truth is that the Tide are getting by on two things: the win last Saturday and the fact that they are, you know, Alabama.

8. Tennessee (4-1)

The 19-14 loss at Arkansas is notable considering Tennessee looked like a borderline juggernaut in September. It shows how rocky things will be in the deepest SEC in conference history. There are some issues that need to be addressed after the weekend, but you only have to look back at the last month to see how good the volunteers can be.

9. Mississippi (5-1)

After being knocked out of the ranks of undefeated teams by a 20-17 loss to Kentucky last Saturday, the Rebels should climb back into the top 10 after an easy win at South Carolina. While there's something about this team that's hard to predict, it's clear that the Rebels can play with and beat almost anyone when they play their game.

10. LSU (4-1)

LSU was ranked No. 12 in last week's poll and should make an easy jump into the top 10 ahead of its crucial game against Ole Miss. The Tigers have been a bit of a fluke, even without counting the loss to Southern California in their season opener, but they have won four straight and are one of only three teams still undefeated in SEC play.

How do surprises affect the ranking?

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