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Fantasy Football Week 5 Start 'Em Sit 'Em

Sit-and-start advice for fantasy football should always be relative and league-dependent. Many launches and seats are also obvious, so in this column we'll focus instead on fringe options that require real consideration. Good luck with your Week 5 lineups!

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears

Hubbard has seen a sharp increase in usage and has been tied with Andy Dalton as the No. 4 fantasy back over the past two weeks. Jonathon Brooks' training window has not opened and both Miles Sanders (illness) and Diontae Johnson (ankle) could reach less than 100%. Chicago is a run-funnel defense that allows the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks but the ninth-most points to RBs. Hubbard is in the top 12 this week.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

Higgins has a much higher target percentage (23.5%), a much higher first read target rate (31.0%) and a much higher air yards percentage (34.9%) than this season Ja'Marr Chase (18.3%, 24.4%, 24.2%). It's just a two-game sample, but Higgins was recovering from an injury and should now be healthy. Higgins is the WR63, but he is the WR5 in expected fantasy points.

The Bengals have the second-highest neutral pass rate in the league and Joe Burrow's wrist looks healthy as he leads the league in end zone targets. The Ravens have given up the third-most passing yards and ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, and their opponents have the second-highest pass rate (68%) in the league.

Sit down, Zack Mosswho is now balanced against the more explosive Chase Brown and receives a Baltimore defense that gives up by far the fewest rushing yards (42.5 per game) and the third fewest fantasy points to running backs.

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans

Kincaid led the Bills in snap% before they suffered a stunning loss in the fourth quarter last week. He also finished with seven goals, a team-high, and could have more to do on Sunday with Khalil Shakir sidelined with an ankle injury. Kincaid is currently an easy starter in a weak group of tight ends.

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Start: Brian Thomas Jr. & Christian Kirk

Thomas Jr. led Jacksonville with a first-read target rate of 33.3% last week and leads the team in target share (27%) this season. The rookie has impressed and the Colts are a bargain match. Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby and Gabe Davis will all play with shoulder injuries, so BTJ should be busy on Sunday. This matchup should be fast-paced, and Indianapolis opponents have averaged the most plays per game this season.

Kirk should benefit with Indy slot corner Kenny Moore out and Evan Engram is reportedly an outsider. Both Jacksonville wideouts can be top-20 fantasy WRs in this matchup.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

Stevenson is not without real risk, as he has made fumbles in four straight games, leading to coach Jerod Mayo demoting him, which likely meant a start for Antonio Gibson against the Dolphins. Gibson has played well in limited capacity this season, but he is literally the only running back with fewer attempts per fumble since Stevenson entered the league.

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Stevenson had a tough schedule ahead of him and returns home Sunday for the second time this season. Despite the demotion, he should still be there and gets a rare matchup where the script could be favorable, as Miami's offense looked like the worst in the league without Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs this season, so stick with Stevenson if you're in a tough spot with four teams on byes this week.

Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders

Cooper dropped a 36-yard touchdown in Week 1, was robbed of a 65-yard touchdown in Week 3 and had an 82-yard score taken back via penalty last week. He's the WR48, but the WR8 in expected fantasy points. The Browns get a Washington secondary that will produce the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. The Commanders also posted 7.9 YPA and a 10:0 TD:INT ratio. Jerome Ford is off to a sneaky fantasy start this week, but Cleveland expects him to throw often while facing the league's best offense.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Williams got off to a rough start as he saw more work (and looked better) after Tyler Badie suffered a horrific injury last week. The Broncos are the favorite and have allowed the fewest yards per game in the league this season. The Raiders have given up the eighth-most fantasy points to RBs and are playing without Davante Adams. a probably less than 100% Maxx Crosby and with a broken offensive line, the script should be favorable for Williams.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers

A touchdown regression is due for Purdy. He has the second-most passing yards and leads the YPA league by half a yard. He also leads the NFL in adjusted EPA/game and has 257 more air yards than any other quarterback. Purdy throws by far the furthest downfield among the leaders in percentage of air yards considered catchable. After recording his best-ever YPA season (9.6) last year (minimum 350 pass attempts), Purdy's remarkable efficiency (9.3 YPA) continued despite the 49ers' post-catch and Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel Sr. and George ranked 31st in yards, Kittle is missing the entire time.

San Francisco has the highest implied team score in the league this week (28 points). Arizona has allowed the second-most YPA points (8.5) and the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, so Purdy is my QB3 this week – well ahead of the struggling Kyler Murray (who has 6 non-quarterbacks with just one touchdown, 0 YPA reached). Script opening bits!).

Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams

Start: Dontayvion Wicks & Jordan Whittington

Wicks led the league in air yards last week and scored a team-high 13 goals after Christian Watson was sidelined with injury. Wicks has suffered several declines this year (he ranks last in ESPN catch score), but over the past two seasons he has also led Green Bay's wide receivers in target rate by a wide margin when on the playing field was. Wicks was in the top 20 in fantasy points per target as a rookie last year and ranks first in expected fantasy points per route run this season; Watson and Wicks combine to have an NFL-high zone target rate, and Watson is now out.

The Packers' offense looks great with Jordan Love while their defense looks shaky, so it's a nice carnival setup for Green Bay pass catchers (Tucker Kraft is a top 10 tight end this week). The Rams have posted an NFL-high 9.1 YPA, the most EPA/pass, and the sixth-most fantasy points for wide receivers this season, so Wicks is WR1 upside this week.

Jordan Whittington is an option for those in deeper leagues as his route participation increased to 97% last week. Whittington was the star of the preseason, earning a TPRR of 25% with Cooper Kupp off the field. The Packers have given up the seventh-most fantasy points to wideouts (and the third-lowest EPA/Rush), so Whittington is a sleeper.

New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks

Start: Geno Smith & Wan'Dale Robinson

Smith leads the NFL in completions, attempts and passing yards, and his low TD rate of 2.5% is sure to decline. He has the lowest percentage of missed throws of more than 10 yards through the air this season behind an improved offensive line. Seattle ranks third in plays per game and first in passing percentage above expectations. The Seahawks are loaded at wide receiver and likely won't continue to score 67% of their touchdowns on the ground. Seattle has one of the highest implied team totals (24.75 points) of the week, so Smith is a top 12 QB.

Robinson has the fifth-most targets in the league, despite having a teammate who is on pace to break the NFL record for targets in a season. Robinson will be particularly busy on Sunday with Malik Nabers out and Devin Singletary doubtful. If necessary, Robinson is worth starting this week, especially in PPR leagues. Meanwhile, if Singletary were sitting, Tyrone Tracy would also be sleeping soundly.

Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Seated: Dak Prescott and Rico Dowdle

Prescott's YPA has lost almost a full yard on the road over his career, and he is averaging just 200.0 yards in two games on the road this season. He'll be without Brandin Cooks on Sunday, and CeeDee Lamb hasn't been able to get separation as usual so far in 2024. Pittsburgh has allowed just four passing points this year and just 3.7 yards per game at home. The Steelers' opponents have averaged the fewest plays per game this season – 20 fewer than teams against the Colts!

Dowdle has earned a larger share of the Dallas backfield over the past two weeks, but Pittsburgh has given up the second-fewest YPC (3.7), just one rushing TD and the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Dowdle can be used during bye weeks if needed given the depth of the running back and his expected volume, but he only has two red zone touches all season.

New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs

Kelce was the TE14 in fantasy points per game to start the year (while also starring). grotesque), although tight end production has declined significantly across the league. But his first target rate rose to 46.7% last week when Rashee Rice left with an early injury. Rookie Xavier Worthy has struggled to get goals and has the third-lowest win percentage in the league. Kansas City will also likely rely on 29-year-old Kareem Hunt at lead back, so with Rice out, Kelce is suddenly the main contributor to the Chiefs offense again.

Advice ahead of the early kick-off in London on Sunday.

New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings (London)

Keep the disappointing Garrett Wilson in fantasy lineups against a Minnesota pass funnel defense that allows the most passing yards in the league and the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. The Vikings' opponents have the highest pass rate in the league this season (71%).

Addison is coming off a two-touchdown game but saw a modest five chances. Sam Darnold's 10.4% TD rate is miles above his career mark (3.9%), and it's likely to decline as Aaron Jones scores more touchdowns. The Jets have allowed the second-fewest passing yards and fewest fantasy points to perimeter receivers this season, and Minnesota's “home game” will be played outdoors in London.

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