Why violent crime is declining – and what that means for the 2024 elections

According to a new report from the Major Cities Chiefs Association, violent crime rates fell significantly in the first half of the year.

Overall, violent crime fell 6 percent and murders fell 17 percent in 69 cities compared to the same period last year. Columbus, Ohio, saw the largest drop in violent crime, at 41 percent, according to an Axios data analysis. But cities like Miami, Washington, DC, and Austin, Texas, also saw big declines. Notably, New York City was not included in the data, although other reports suggested violent crime was falling there as well.

It's hard to say exactly what causes the decline that occurs after a major Covid-19 crime wave. It may be due in part to anti-crime measures at the federal, state and local levels. But it may also just be a symptom of normal life resuming in America after the pandemic – or a combination of these and other factors.

Republicans have long tried to use crime concerns as a political argument against President Joe Biden's administration. While former President Donald Trump does not seem to be giving up on this attack strategy, Democrats can now use the new data as a defense. But whether that will be effective is far from certain.

In a statement Saturday, President Joe Biden credited the $1.9 trillion stimulus package that Congress passed in 2021, which provided $15 billion for public safety and violence prevention, with reducing crime rates. He also pointed to a bipartisan gun control bill that expanded background checks and encouraged states to pass “red flag” laws to prevent people who pose a danger to themselves or others from obtaining a gun.

While these laws may have helped, some experts are extremely skeptical that the decline is due to specific government initiatives.

“I think it's too early to know exactly why murder and violent crime are declining now,” said Jeff Asher, a crime researcher who runs a crime database at AH Datalytics. “In general, I'm skeptical when policies lead to an increase or decrease in crime, especially at the federal level.”

However, the speed and scale of pandemic crime was such a big outlier that Asher thought it was possible that government spending on public safety helped pause such an acute surge in violence.

Other social and psychological factors may also have played a role. Anna Harvey, a crime researcher at New York University, said there was “clear evidence” that violent crimes were often emotionally motivated, such as by stress or anger, but also by the possibility and danger of being caught.

“The Covid pandemic appears to have directly increased stress levels, potentially leading to higher rates of violent crime during the pandemic period and lower rates after the pandemic subsided,” she said. “The pandemic has also influenced the likelihood that violent crimes will be witnessed by others and reported to the police, affecting the 'will I get caught?' aspect of decision-making.”

She said the likelihood of getting caught has dropped because foot traffic in cities fell sharply during and after the pandemic and has been slow to recover as many chose to work from home or move out of cities. Using cellphone location data, researchers at the University of Toronto found that downtown areas in many northern cities in particular struggled to return to pre-pandemic activity levels until at least November 2022.

“The trend is toward a gradual recovery in pedestrian traffic, reflecting the gradual decline in violent crime rates,” Harvey said.

This year, crime may not be the most important issue for most voters. In Gallup polls this year, about 1 to 4 percent of voters said crime was the most important problem facing the country, even though crime was declining. But it's still a big problem: In a March Gallup poll, 53 percent said they were “very concerned” about crime and violence.

Trump is trying to capitalize on this by linking Harris, a former federal prosecutor and California attorney general, to the “defund the police” movement, stoking fears about the criminal threat posed by illegal immigrants, and linking the crime issue to Biden's unpopular handling of the U.S.-Mexico border.

Harris has pushed back against those attacks, recently releasing a new ad that calls her a former “prosecutor in a border state” who “spent decades fighting violent crime.” Trump's attacks on immigration are also simply not based in fact: The number of unauthorized border crossings has declined for five months in a row, reaching levels not seen since Trump took office. FBI crime data also shows that border cities tend to have some of the lowest crime rates in the country. And other research has shown that U.S.-born citizens are more than twice as likely to be arrested for violent crimes as illegal immigrants.

That doesn't necessarily neutralize the political threat posed by Republican attacks that Democrats are weak on crime. Public perception often lags behind statistics, and it may be difficult for the party to change its mind after the Covid-era crime wave. But the next time Trump claims crime is out of control, the Harris team will have new evidence to show.