UFC 305 Predictions – Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya: Fight Card, Odds, Preview, Prelims, Expert Tips

Israel Adesanya is aiming for his third middleweight title. UFC305 when he faces current champion Dricus du Plessis. “DDP” will be making his first defense of the title he won in his last fight against Sean Strickland, while Adesanya looks to rebound from losing the belt to Strickland in a surprise loss at UFC 293.

At UFC 293, Adesanya was scheduled to defend his title against du Plessis, but du Plessis was unwilling to compete after defeating Robert Whittaker in a title eliminator two months earlier. That opened the door for Strickland to shake things up in the 185-pound division.

Now Adesanya and du Plessis face off after their rivalry has seen some unfortunate moments in which the two African-born fighters argued over who was the “real African.” Adesanya was born in Nigeria before his family moved to New Zealand, while du Plessis was born in South Africa and still fights out of the country.

In the co-main event, former flyweight title contender Steve Erceg will face former interim title challenger Kai Kara-France in what could be the most action-packed fight of the entire event.

With so much going on Saturday night, let's take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds before getting into our staff's predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 305 fight card, odds

• Israel Adesanya -120 vs. Dricus du Plessis (c) +100, Middleweight title
• Steve Erceg -160 vs. Kai Kara-France +135, Flyweights
• Mateusz Gamrot -350 vs. Dan Hooker +275, Lightweights
• Jairzinho Rozenstruik -220 vs. Tai Tuivasa +180, Heavyweights
• Carlos Prates -350 vs. Li Jingliang +275, Welterweights
• Junior Tafa -130 vs. Valter Walker +110, Heavyweights
• Josh Culibao -140 vs. Ricardo Ramos +120, Featherweights
• Terez Bleda -150 vs. Casey O'Neill +125, Women's Flyweights
• Jack Jenkins -700 vs. Herbert Burns +500, Featherweights
• Tom Nolan -1200 vs. Alex Reyes +750, Lightweights
• Song Kenan -175 vs. Ricky Glenn +145, welterweights
• Stewart Nicoll -240 vs. Jesus Aguilar +200, Flyweights

With such a massive main event, the team at CBS Sports set out to create predictions and tips for the main event. Here are your favorites: Brent Brookhouse (combat sportswriter), Brian Campbell (combat sportswriter), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

UFC 305 Tips, Predictions

du Plessis vs Adesanya

Campbell: Unless the 35-year-old Adesanya is able to hurt du Plessis and actively force him to retire, it could be a difficult evening for the former champion. Adesanya is not only dealing with the demands of age and an 11-month layoff, the longest of his UFC career, but also the mental toll of losing two of his last three fights (which left many doubting whether he'd get that title shot). Adesanya was stopped by Alex Pereira and beaten wide on points by Sean Strickland after going down in the first round. Considering that du Plessis, a slight underdog, can also take the fight to the ground by utilizing his massive frame as a gigantic middleweight, there's enough reason to believe Adesanya's window of opportunity is closing quickly in his bid to become the UFC's first three-time middleweight king. And all signs have pointed over the past few years that now is DDP's time.

Bach House: It's perfectly reasonable to assume that Adesanya should win, and possibly with ease. Were this the Adesanya of a few years ago, I'd take that as a sure thing, while also expecting the fight to look similar to Adesanya's humiliation of Paulo Costa. Like Costa, du Plessis is a tough, pressure-based fighter, although du Plessis uses his aggressiveness a little more effectively. But it's hard to shake the image of Adesanya looking like a man who didn't know how to pull the trigger in his last fight against Sean Strickland. Time catches up hard, especially on preternaturally gifted strikers, and this may have been the fight in which Adesanya underwent a similar transformation to Roy Jones Jr. at the end of his career. Unless I have reason to believe that this was a one-off performance and not the new normal for Adesanya, I'm inclined to believe that du Plessis applied enough pressure to successfully defend his title using brute force.

Mahjouri: This fight is difficult to gauge: du Plessis delivers more than expected when least expected, while Adesanya fumbled horribly against huge underdog Sean Strickland. Adesanya's smooth movement and counterpunching have put other middleweight giants like Yoel Romero and Paulo Costa to shame. Adesanya's familiarity with du Plessis' physique works in his favor, although the champion's willingness to walk through fire to push around his opponents gives me concerns. This will either be a fast fight or an ugly one. I expect Adesanya's movement will allow him to steal key rounds or get him in position for a knockout blow, but don't be surprised if du Plessis embarrasses the challenger with ragdoll takedowns and power punches. I'll cautiously pick Adesanya by decision in what will likely be his final run as middleweight champion.

Erceg vs Kara-France

Campbell: In his last fight, Erceg came as close to capturing the UFC's flyweight title as he could get, but then lost the five-round affair – in just his fourth UFC appearance – after a late strategic error. The Perth native returns just three months later to fight New Zealander Kara-France, who has just lost two fights in a row. But at 31 years old and knowing that a third straight loss would be disastrous for his title hopes, don't underestimate the slight underdog's chances of getting back into real title contention. Remember, two fights ago, Kara-France was seemingly on course to defeat former champion Brandon Moreno in their 2022 interim title fight, only to be stopped by a brutal body kick in Round 3 (which was followed by a split decision loss to rising challenger Amir Albazi). Kara-France has three times as much UFC experience as Erceg and should be motivated to aggressively push for a win to keep things out of the judges' hands.

Mahjouri: This fight feels like two flyweight contenders heading in opposite directions. Erceg turned a lot of heads with his spirited loss to Alexandre Pantoja in a UFC title fight that came sooner than expected. I expect he learned valuable lessons that will serve him well against the flyweight elite. Erceg's technical striking and strong submission game should be enough to overwhelm Kara-France, who likely loses by KO, submission or decision. Kara-France's power is always a threat, but Erceg is too smart to be caught slacking. Give me Erceg by decision.