Egg prices rise again as bird flu limits supply – NBC Connecticut

Egg prices are rising, putting the staple food back in the spotlight as consumers become concerned not only about inflation but also about absolute price levels.

In July, egg prices rose year-on-year for the third consecutive month, reversing a year of relative price declines due to the ongoing battle against highly pathogenic avian influenza, known as HPAI or bird flu.

Prices for this important food ingredient rose by 19.1 percent in July compared to the same month last year, according to data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) published this week. By comparison, the total basket of goods rose by just 2.9 percent in the same period.

Egg price inflation came into focus for consumers during the pandemic, as eggs are ubiquitous in everyday cooking. Price increases for eggs and other food items have been top of mind for consumers struggling with higher costs, which in turn has affected consumer sentiment in recent years.

However, the latest wave of inflation appears to be more closely linked to a nearly 8% increase from March to April that can be linked to seasonal patterns of bird flu. That was the largest month-on-month increase since spring 2023.

“The short answer, we believe, is related to avian flu,” said Caitlinn Hubbell, a market research analyst at the Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability at Purdue University in West Lafayette, Indiana. “As unfortunate as it is, avian flu, which is highly contagious, is still circulating.”

Avian flu had a historic outbreak in 2022 and worsened again in late 2023. More recently, Hubbell said, renewed outbreaks in Colorado and California have impacted supplies.

Demand for eggs is considered “inelastic,” Hubbell said. That means consumers typically buy the same amount regardless of price increases. On the other hand, she noted that consumers typically don't stock up when they see lower prices.

Inelastic items often experience large price swings, even with small fluctuations in supply, she said. That can underscore the impact of bird flu outbreaks on the prices customers see on grocery store shelves.

For consumers, that means higher prices. The average price for a dozen large Grade A eggs exceeded $3 in July for the first time in over a year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Despite this reacceleration, prices are still more than 20% below last year's level. Nevertheless, the price of eggs in the CPI basket has increased by about 42% compared to July 2021.

Looking ahead, Hubbell said price trends will depend on how bird flu plays out, but she is confident consumers will feel some relief as fewer outbreaks are expected in coming seasons.

“It's hard to say,” Hubbell said. “It all depends on the size and scope of the HPAI impact.”