Futures file: Grain prices fall

Corn and soybean yield estimates have been raised as the growing season so far looks set to be a record one. The statewide corn yield estimate was raised to 183.1 bu/ac from 181, while soybean yield was raised to 53.2 bu/ac from an estimated 52. Both yield estimates would be record highs if they come true.

Soybean acreage increased by 1.161 million acres (1.3%), while corn acreage decreased by 728,000 acres (0.87%).

Corn and wheat ending stocks were flat or slightly lower, while soybean ending stock estimates rose, rising from the July report to 560 million bushels. This was the highest soybean ending stock forecast since August 2020, when soybean prices traded around $9/bu before everything changed when demand across all grain commodities surged and the ending stock forecast was overestimated, which came to light in subsequent USDA reports.

This was the perfect storm for a historic price rally, as the pump was also primed for a wave of inflation across all sectors.

At this point in time, it would be difficult to speak of a historic price rally in the grain sector, as most signals suggest that we are moving in the opposite direction to August 2020.