Hunter Greene injury: How the Reds star's IL stay could affect the race for the NL Cy Young Award

The Reds were in great shape, and All-Star starter Hunter Greene was having a fantastic season. Then the Reds lost 7-1 to the Royals on Friday night. Then on Saturday, the Reds placed Greene on the injured list because of soreness in his right elbow. That was scary enough, considering how common pitcher injuries are these days—plus, Greene had Tommy John surgery a few years ago—but then the Reds lost 13-1.

It's been a tough few days in Cincinnati.

It's possible that Greene will only miss a few rounds in the rotation. Manager David Bell told reporters that “the MRI looked good” (per Charlie Goldsmith of the Enquirer), but any time off still hurts the Reds. There are also implications for the NL Cy Young vote.

I'm not saying that Greene was a favorite for the award, but it's important to remember that each ballot has spots one through five and each spot is assigned a total score. A player who finishes third or fourth on some ballots will affect the final outcome and Greene is definitely one of those candidates.

Even a few missed starts gives others a chance to move up a few spots on some ballots, and that kind of jockeying can make a difference. As an example, look at the BBWAA voting chart for the NL Cy Young in 2021. Zack Wheeler and Corbin Burnes were tied with 12 first-place finishes, but the second-place finishes tipped the balance in Burnes' favor. For anyone who follows awards, this is a good example of how Greene's injury could tip the balance here.

After 24 starts this season, Greene is 9-4 with a 2.83 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 162 strikeouts in 143 1/3 innings. On Saturday, just before going on the IL, he was third in the league in ERA, fifth in WHIP, fourth in strikeouts and first in WAR (Baseball Reference's version; he's fifth in FanGraphs' version).

If Greene spends the minimum 15 days on the injured list, he could come back just as effective as before and end up near the top of the ballot. Remember, this field isn't going to blow you away this season. Chris Sale is the leader in the locker room and currently seems to be the only one definitely ahead of Greene in the pecking order. Others in the running would be Wheeler, Logan Webb, Paul Skenes, Tyler Glasnow (who also just landed on the injured list) and Dylan Cease.

Plus, the Reds could get back on track as Greene recovers from injury and then benefit from his return. They are five games out of a playoff spot and that could be doable after a winning streak.

Overall, however, a lot seems to have changed for the Reds and Greene in the last two days.