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Fantasy Court: The Case for Derrick Henry in 2024 (Fantasy Football)

This article is part of the annual Fantasy Court series. Be sure to read “The Case AGAINST Derrick Henry” by Javier Manzanera to get the opposing view.

Opening speech

Your Honor, I stand before you today in fantasy football court to defend a man who has worked for years tireless in the Tennessee Titans backfield. A man who has given fantasy managers six consecutive seasons of double-digit touchdowns, one RB1 completion after another and more runs than anyone otherwise in the National Football League since 2019. A man who some critics claim has “lost a step,“he has”the age limit is reached,” and is sent out to rot on the fantasy scrap yard. The man I am referring to can hardly be described as a mere Manbecause for fantasy managers he is so much more than that – he is a legend, an icon, a phenomenon… a yeti. Of course, I'm here today representing the Baltimore Ravens' new lead running back and true RB1 for your fantasy teams in 2024… Mr. Derrick Henry.

Appearing before you and making a case for Mr. Henry as one of the 12 best fantasy options this year feels like the exoneration of a certain Kris Kringle in the Christmas documentary The Miracle of Manhattan – I advocate for an elderly gentleman who is loved by all and appears every winter to give all good boys and girls the ultimate gift… the gift of fantasy points. Let me begin my argument for my very own fantasy Santa with a visit from the ghosts of seasons past.

Hail the King

Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, what lovable qualities do you look for in a star fantasy running back? Rush attempts? Rush yards? Touchdowns? Yards after contact? Possibly even broken tackles? How about a rusher who can do that? all?

As in four of the last five seasons, Derrick Henry was once again the league's top scorer with 280 attempts in 17 games. Although he operated behind an attack line that according to PlayerProfiler among the last 10King Henry nevertheless managed to take care of the second highest yards on the season (1,167), trailing only fellow immortal Christian McCaffrey (1,459). The Yeti lived up to his hideously intimidating nickname, recording the fifth-most broken tackles (23) while accumulating the second-most yards after contact (570)… just three shy of CMC's total.

I mentioned earlier that this was Henry's sixth consecutive season of double-digit touchdowns. In that same time, only Ezekiel Elliott came anywhere close to the Big Dog, eclipsing the 10-TD mark three times. 2023 was Henry's fourth of his last six seasons in which he finished the year as a top-12 back despite only being on the field for 53% of Tennessee's offensive snaps. Tyjae Spears may have taken on a larger share of the workload than Henry's managers would have liked — but his performance in a “lighter” workload and his greater involvement in the passing game still earned him 10th in FPPG at the position (12.9) and 8th overall at the end of the year.

Age is just a number

Counsel acknowledges that the defendant did indeed turn 30, and while we acknowledge the abundance of evidence pointing to a decline in fantasy production at this point in a player's career, our counterargument, made with all due respect to other running backs, is simple – they were not Derrick Henry.

Crossing the threshold to the 30s is not quite the death sentence doubters would have you believe it. Since 2010, no fewer than nine running backs on the “wrong” side of thirty have finished the season with at least 10 touchdowns – the last one was only achieved last year when the then 31-year-old Raheem Mostert reached the end zone *checks notes* 21 times! In addition to his league-leading touchdown speed, Mostert is only the fourth runner since 2010 to collect over 1,000 rushing yards in his 30s – after Adrian Peterson in 2018 and Frank Gore (he is infinite, he is everything) in 2014 And 2016. Mostert's significantly lighter workload entering last season (just 465 appearances in eight years as a pro) may make him an underdog, but how does Henry compare to the two future Hall of Famers right off the bat as they entered their trend-breaking seasons?

Before their respective seasons with over 30/1,000 yards, neither Peterson nor Gore (in both years) had achieved such impressive numbers as the Yeti. Henry's 4.2 Y/A was his lowest since his sophomore year in 2017, but still surpasses the highest mark of 4.1 that Gore achieved at the age of Only over 30 in 2015. Both men continued improve their Y/A in each of the following years – Gore to 4.3 Y/A in 2014 and 3.9 Y/A in 2016, with AP jumping almost a full yard to 4.2 Y/A at age 33! Like Peterson and Gore, Derrick Henry is a talent of his generation at the position – and as we can see from NFL Next Gen Stats analysis of this 69-yard run (nice) from Week 18 of last year, there's absolutely no indication he's slowing down anytime soon.

Quote from the Ravens: “Feed him more”

After eight seasons in Tennessee, Henry has found a new home in Maryland, where he looks to end his long wait for a Super Bowl ring in the company of Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews on the Baltimore Ravens. I noticed that Henry was still efficient last season despite his age… but what may have been a more detrimental role in his light One reason for the decline in numbers last season was the quality of his supporting cast in Nashville. With his move from the Titans to the Ravens, Derrick Henry now finds himself on the fifth-best Attack in the NFL in contrast to the fifth worst last year, he did. In 2023, Baltimore led the NFL in team rushing attempts (541) and rushing yards (2,661) while scoring a whopping 26 touchdowns on the ground – just one fewer than Detroit, Miami and San Francisco, who tied for first with 27.

The Ravens are the most successful of all high-T offenses and have over 500 running attempts every season since 2018 – the only team to break the 500-carry mark every year in that six-year period,

season Try Rank Yards in the run Rank Rushing TDs Rank
2018 547 1st place 2,441 2nd place 19 3rd place
2019 596 1st place 3,296 1st place 21 T-2.
2020 555 1st place 3,071 1st place 24 3rd place
2021 517 3rd place 2,479 3rd place 18 9th place
2022 526 7th place 2,720 2nd place 14 19.
2023 541 1st place 2,662 1st place 26 4th place

I would be remiss if I didn't address the obvious when discussing Baltimore's running power over the past five years – the 2023 NFL MVP… Lamar Demeatrice Jackson. Since being drafted in 2018, Jackson has accounted for 27% of the Ravens' total run attempts, 32% of their rushing yards, and 24% of their rushing touchdowns. Jackson is an anomaly at the position, with an annual average of 145/.887/5 on the ground alone. Now, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, at first glance it may seem like my client is being put in an unfavorable situation since the competition for runs is so fierce… but may I bring your attention back to the chart above?

The Ravens Average 547 runs per season…if my calculations are correct, each ball carrier has over 400 opportunities not named Lamar Jackson. The following exhibit A shows what it looked like last season:

Leading ball carrier Gus Edwards and one-game wonder JK Dobbins have followed former Ravens OC Greg Roman to Los Angeles to wear the Chargers' sky blue jersey, and Melvin Gordon… well, Melvin Gordon will probably have a few more off Sundays than he's been used to in recent years. The bottom line is that all three are gone, leaving over 200 runs in their absence. Am I suggesting Derrick Henry steps in and takes on all the work that trio left behind? Um, yes, and then some. Justice Hill's 84 attempts were a career high, and while he and dynamic sophomore Keaton Mitchell will both play important roles on offense, this is Derrick Henry's backfield now.

Head coach Jim Harbaugh has already confirmed that Henry's effort and workload will be in line with what we've seen in Tennessee over the past few seasons. And even if his 73% run attempt rate last year were to drop to, say, 70%, that would still give the King roughly 280 opportunities to intimidate opposing defenses behind that Baltimore O-line that allowed each of the Ravens' primary ball carriers to run over 4.0 runs per year last year.

Opportunity is Derrick Henry's key to success – he's a running back who likes to take some time to warm up and wear down defenses with his relentless power and tough running style. In the words of his new head coach – “You must not let him start, because once he starts, it will be difficult to stop him” – along with the Ravens’ projected total of 10.5 wins for 2024, which third highest In the league, King Henry will likely have plenty of chances to be in the starting line-up week after week.

Concluding remarks

Ladies and gentlemen of the fantasy court, I have presented you with the compelling case for my client to once again finish the season as the RB1 for your fantasy team, and I dispute that his current ADP late in the second round is blasphemy. For him to come off the board at his lowest position since 2019, a season that followed an RB14 finish, is baseless and a blatant mistake on behalf of the entire fantasy community. Leading rusher for this Super Bowl-contending Baltimore Ravens team will be Derrick Henry light to break the 1,000-yard mark again, making it seven seasons in a row with double-digit touchdowns. As a final act, the defense wants to testify against key witness Mike The Fantasy Killer Wright took the stand to give his final opinion on Mr Henry’s prospects in 2024. In legal jargon, I believe this is called Mike Drop…the defense rests.

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