Trump drastically increases the number of annual fentanyl deaths

Former President Donald Trump recently said at a campaign rally that more than 300,000 Americans die each year from the synthetic opioid drug fentanyl and that the number of fentanyl overdoses was the “lowest” during his administration and has skyrocketed since then.

“We lose 300,000 people a year to fentanyl coming across our border,” Trump told supporters at a July 24 campaign rally in Charlotte, North Carolina. “We had the number down to the lowest point and now it's worse than ever,” he said.

Trump's numbers appear to have no basis in fact. Government statistics put the number of drug overdose deaths at 100,000 to 110,000 per year, with opioid deaths at around 81,000. That's enough for the government to call opioid-related overdoses an “epidemic,” but the number doesn't even come close to the number cited by Trump.

And while the number of opioid deaths has increased since Trump left office, it is false to claim that this was the “lowest” number of opioid deaths during his time in office.

The numbers are probably higher than reported, but not nearly as high as Trump’s statement

Karoline Leavitt, the Trump campaign's national press secretary, declined to comment specifically on the source of Trump's statistics. Instead, she emailed KFF Health News with several bullet points about the opioid crisis under the headline: “DRUGS ARE FLOWING INTO OUR COMMUNITIES ACROSS HARRIS' OPEN BORDER.”

One of these entries noted that there were “112,000 fatal drug overdoses” last year and linked to a report from NPR that reported that fact — directly contradicting Trump's own statement of 300,000 fentanyl deaths. Furthermore, the number reported by NPR is an overall number, and not just for fentanyl-related deaths.

According to recent government figures, there were a total of 107,543 drug overdose deaths in 2023, with an estimated 74,702 involving fentanyl. These numbers are consistent with what experts on the subject told KFF Health News.

“The number of actual deaths is probably significantly higher,” said Andrew Kolodny, medical director of the Opioid Policy Research Collaborative at Brandeis University, noting that many such overdose deaths are not recorded by government researchers.

“But I don’t know where to get this figure of 300,000,” Kolodny added.

Trump's statement that the number of deaths from fentanyl was the “lowest” during his term in office and is now higher than ever before is also incorrect.

Overdose deaths — particularly from synthetic opioids such as fentanyl — began rising in the 1990s. When Trump took office in January 2017, the number of overdose deaths involving synthetic opioids was about 21,000. By January 2021, when he left the White House, that number was nearly 60,000, data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Vital Statistics System show. Deaths involving synthetic opioids continued to rise even after Trump left office.

“It's certainly true that more Americans are dying (from opioids) than ever before,” Kolodny said. “But if you look at the trends during the Trump administration, the number of deaths has just gotten higher and higher.”

However, over the last year, statistics show that the number of overdoses has stagnated or declined slightly. However, it is too early to say whether this trend will continue.

Given that Trump made his statements about fentanyl in the context of the southern border “invasion,” it's worth noting that, according to the U.S. government, the vast majority of fentanyl smuggled into the country illegally comes through legal ports of entry. In addition, nearly 90% of those convicted of fentanyl trafficking in 2022 were U.S. citizens, an analysis by the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank, found. This year, U.S. citizens were convicted of fentanyl trafficking at 12 times the rate of immigrants who were in the U.S. illegally, the analysis found.

Our verdict

Trump said: “We lose 300,000 people every year to fentanyl coming across our border. We had the number down to the lowest it's been, and now it's worse than ever.”

The number of annual deaths from fentanyl in the United States has increased since he left office. But Trump's claim of 300,000 deaths is completely unfounded and contradicted by the figures provided by his press secretary.

Trump is wrong in claiming that overdose rates are at their lowest during his administration. In addition, Trump continues to link the fentanyl trade to illegal immigration – a claim that is not supported by statistics.

We rate Trump’s statement as “Pants on Fire!”

From Jacob GardenswartzKFF Health News Staff