Employees are more afraid than ever of losing their jobs

Alex Tanzi
Bloomberg News
(TNS)

The proportion of people who say they are likely to be unemployed in the next four months reached a record high in a 2014 survey of consumer expectations by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

At the same time, there is an increasing number of consumers who expect a job offer in the next few months compared to a year ago. Overall, the New York Fed survey shows increased turnover in the labor market, as well as workers who are increasingly dissatisfied with their wages and benefits and who are holding on to high salary expectations.

Every four months, the New York Fed surveys about 1,000 people about their job situation and prospects. Economists and policymakers are on high alert, watching for signs that the job market could deteriorate faster than expected after the July employment report showed a rise in unemployment.

According to the July survey, 4.4 percent of respondents expect to lose their jobs in the next four months. This is the highest figure ever. However, this proportion is still lower than the proportion of those who expect to change employers (11.6 percent).

The report highlights the increase in turnover. The rate of people switching employers rose to 7.1% – the highest since the survey began. And the proportion of people who had a job four months ago and are still with the same employer was at a record low of 88%.

Workers are less satisfied with their jobs and are looking for other opportunities. Opportunities for advancement have worsened, particularly for women, people without college degrees, and those with annual household incomes of less than $60,000.

While turnover is increasing, workers are holding on to their salary expectations. The average reservation wage – the lowest wage respondents would be willing to accept in a new job – remained near the record high at just over $81,000. That's an increase of nearly $20,000 since March 2020.

Women's salary demands have risen faster than men's over the years, but men continue to expect significantly more – $94,500 compared to $66,400 in the most recent survey released Monday.

More and more employees assume that they will be able to work longer.

The percentage of people saying they are likely to work beyond age 62 rebounded from a record low of 45.8% reached in the March 2024 survey to 48.3%. The expectation of working beyond age 67 also increased.

These data may indicate that, despite rising stock markets and housing prices, inflation is causing some older workers to think twice about retirement.

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