Grocery prices appear to be falling as shoppers in the Dayton area seek relief

But is there reason for optimism? Inflation in the food retail sector appears to be cooling down. Last year, prices rose by just over 1%, compared to almost 5% the year before. The Consumer Price Index recently released its July report, which puts inflation at its lowest level since March 2021.

However, with ongoing problems caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, higher profit margins at major chains, and a particularly hot summer, it may take some time for your grocery bill to go down.

Recently, this news organization checked prices at Aldi, Kroger, Meijer, Dot's Market and Dorothy Lane Market in person and online for several popular items. The prices we checked included milk (one gallon, 2%), eggs (one dozen, Grade A), iceberg lettuce (one head), ground beef (one pound), butter (one pound) and bread (one loaf), using either the store brand or the same specific brand.

At Meijer, the bill would have been $22.46. At Kroger, you would have paid a similar $22.29. Dot's was a little more expensive ($25.33) and Dorothy Lane was even more expensive ($29.93). Aldi was cheaper ($15.67), but with an asterisk. They didn't carry some of the national brands we measured, and their store brands were much cheaper.

Aldi and Dorothy Lane are both a little different from your average supermarket chain. Aldi offers a more limited product selection than other stores and only carries a few brands. There is usually only one option for each product. Dorothy Lane, which is locally owned, offers more specialty products and focuses on products from local farms and businesses.

“We try to work with local farmers,” said Jo Ann Patts, customer service representative at Dorothy Lane Market in Springboro, adding that they offer “organic and non-organic products.”

It's no secret that prices have generally been rising in recent years. In a 2011 Dayton Daily News price comparison, the most expensive carton of eggs ($1.69, Kroger and Dorothy Lane Market) cost less than the cheapest eggs we found this summer ($1.99, Aldi). A carton of eggs at Kroger now costs $2.49, nearly 50% more than it used to. Eggs at Dorothy Lane cost $3.39, about double what they were 13 years ago.

Will food costs continue to rise?

Grocery prices have risen significantly over the past four years. An analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data by software company Trace One PLM found that the cost of food at home increased 24.7% from March 2020 to March 2024.

Individual foods will cost different amounts. Eggs, for example, cost 50 percent more than in March 2020, while bananas cost 7 percent more.

Some pandemic-era price spikes appear to be waning. The price of eggs has fallen 6.8% over the past year, while the price of milk has fallen 1-2%. Despite this trend, prices for individual food items are still significantly higher than pre-COVID levels.

“Everything is more expensive,” said buyer Jan Burden of Springboro, describing what felt like a “steady rise” in prices over the past two years.

Kristin Mullins, CEO of the Ohio Grocer's Association, said the grocery industry is still grappling with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“We had severe supply chain disruptions and, believe it or not, we are still working to resolve the issue,” Mullins said.

Do profits matter?

In early August 2023, the Federal Trade Commission announced an investigation into high grocery costs. In March, it released a report saying that increased profit margins in large, national retailers following the pandemic drove up prices. In its report, the FTC highlighted that grocery retail revenues would exceed total costs by 7% in 2023, higher than the last peak of 5.6% in 2015.

Mullins said the Ohio Grocer's Association supports the investigation because unfair practices by large chains could hurt independent grocers. She said most grocery stores have a 1-2% profit margin.

“It certainly helps our smaller stores remain competitive in the market,” Mullins said.

Summer heat is not helpful

Seungki Lee, an agricultural economist at Ohio State University, said the summer heat could drive prices up even further because extreme heat can reduce crop yields. Those lower yields can drive up prices along the agricultural supply chain, which also affects grocers' bills.

“I think we're likely to see higher fruit and vegetable prices in the next few months if this hot summer continues,” Lee said.

It's hard to say when exactly that will happen, though. Lee said that while stores' current inventory levels may protect against price increases, eventually production costs will catch up.

Ty Higgins, communications director for the Ohio Farm Bureau, said that despite a good start to the growing season, “Mother Nature has turned off the money.”

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, parts of southern Ohio are experiencing drought. Large parts of Darke County, home to the state's second-largest number of farms, are currently experiencing “abnormally dry” conditions.

A look into the future

In July, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its food price outlook for 2024 and 2025, predicting that food inflation will continue to slow. In addition, they predicted that prices for dairy, eggs, and fresh fruit will continue to decline. Wages are also rising faster than food prices.

While some stores tend to be more expensive than others, buying certain products at a different store can help save a few dollars. The same goes for switching to store brands or buying in bulk whenever possible. Lisa Carlin, a writer for the Dayton Mom Collective, has written that it can be helpful to plan meals for the time period you're shopping for and sort your list by which stores have cheaper prices.

Other writers on the collective suggest using store rewards apps or coupon apps like Fetch and Ibotta. It's also worth keeping the coupons, flyers and receipts you get from stores.

Jeff Engram of Tipp City hasn't been too upset about grocery prices lately, but he's started paying more attention to special offers.

“I look at coupons and flyers (in the mail) a lot more now,” Engram said. “I used to throw them away.”