Best-case and worst-case scenarios for Vanderbilt Football and Clark Lea in 2024

There are lower expectations and less hype for Vanderbilt football in 2024 than there was a year ago.

Maybe that's a good thing. In 2023, those expectations weren't met, as the Commodores, who were hoping to qualify for a bowl game, instead finished 2-10. This season, Clark Lea hasn't talked much about expected records.

This is not the same team it was a year ago. Vanderbilt has traded away a large portion of its roster, bringing in a number of transfer players and a new roster of assistant coaches. The Commodores brought in former New Mexico State coach Jerry Kill, offensive coordinator Tim Beck, quarterback Diego Pavia and a handful of other players and assistants from the Aggies team that wrote one of college football's greatest turnaround stories in 2023.

But the SEC is also expanding, adding Oklahoma and Texas. Vanderbilt has five top-15 teams on its schedule for 2024, including Alabama and Texas. This difficult schedule will make it hard to get momentum.

Here are the best and worst case scenarios for the Commodores in 2024:

Best-case scenario: Hello Bowl game

Diego Pavia shines brightest when the lights are on. Practice hasn't been the best reflection of his abilities, and the same alpha dog that led a win over Auburn last season is showing up in the SEC. The defense has improved greatly, spurred by All-SEC seasons from two players, CJ Taylor, Langston Patterson and Randon Fontenette.

Vanderbilt is leading the way in nonconference play, starting with an upset win over Virginia Tech on opening weekend. The Commodores are coming off two wins in the SEC against teams with weak quarterback play — South Carolina and Auburn are the main contenders. That gives Vanderbilt a 6-6 season and a bowl game for the first time since 2019.

Worst-case scenario: 2:10 again, Clark Lea fired

Vanderbilt begins the season with a crushing loss to Virginia Tech, and it's a grim sign of things to come. The Commodores beat Alcorn State but lose to Georgia State due to mistakes, much like UNLV did a year ago. Injuries to key players plague the team, leaving Vanderbilt without continuity. The offense is so weak that the defense has to stay on the field far too long.

None of the SEC games are particularly close, and the season ends with the Commodores being knocked out by Tennessee on their home field, a game that clinches the Vols a spot in the College Football Playoff. After Clark Lea finishes 2-10 for the third time in four years, he is fired.

Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Reach her at [email protected] or on Twitter. @aria_gerson.

This article originally appeared in the Nashville Tennessean: Vanderbilt football schedule: The best and worst predictions for the 2024 season