According to a survey by the New York Fed, workers would currently accept no less than $81,000 for a new job

Every four months, the New York Fed surveys around 1,000 people about their employment situation and prospects – and the proportion of people who think they are likely to become unemployed in the next four months has reached a record high.

The July survey found that 4.4% of respondents expect to lose their jobs in the near future. To put that in context, the only other time that figure ever reached 4% was when the pandemic struck in March 2020.

This comes at a time when workers are increasingly facing existential threats due to AI and economic uncertainty – or, as Korn Ferry put it in a recent report, the “perfect storm” for mass unemployment.

Just last week, technology giant Cisco laid off thousands of employees after announcing it would invest more in AI instead.

At the same time, employers are neither hiring nor filling new positions, regardless of whether they are affected by new technologies, because they are waiting for the economy to pick up again, according to Korn Ferry.

According to a report by the U.S. Department of Labor, the U.S. economy created about 61,000 fewer jobs than expected last month.

Employees continue to stick to their salary expectations

Yet despite fears of being unemployed soon, today's job seekers are unwilling to accept less than $81,147—an increase of nearly $20,000 since March 2020. That figure is the average worker's reservation wage, the lowest wage respondents would be willing to accept in order to take a new job.

The Fed's report also makes it clear that workers are increasingly dissatisfied with their current wages, benefits and career advancement opportunities.

Women, people without college degrees, and those with annual household incomes of less than $60,000 have the lowest chances of receiving a promotion in the near future.

Fear of unemployment does not stop employees from considering leaving the workforce

Despite the gloomy labor market situation, more people are currently looking for a new job than during the “Great Resignation.”

Nearly 30% of Fed respondents said they had been looking for a job in the last month, compared to just 19% in July 2023.

This is the highest level since March 2014, when 32% of professionals said they were looking for another job.

By comparison, in spring 2021, when a record four million American workers quit their jobs, just over 20% of people surveyed by the Fed were looking for a new challenge.

In addition, the rate of those moving to a new employer has reached an all-time high of 7.1%. During the great wave of layoffs, less than 5% of people said they would enroll with a new company.

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