Fantasy Football Injury Report (2024)

And we are back!

We're excited to welcome you to our weekly injury report collaboration with FantasyPros. For those who haven't met us yet, I'm Deepak Chona, MD – orthopedic sports surgeon and founder of SportsMedAnalytics (SMA). Our goal with SMA is to bring together clinical experience, medical data, and internally developed algorithms to bring you the industry-leading data-driven NFL injury analysis.

We love what we do, but it wouldn't be possible without your support, so we thank you very much for everything you've given us and we look forward to continuing.

As always, you can find our full database of injury updates at sportsmedanalytics.com and you can always reach us on Twitter/X @SportMDAnalysis. And now let's get started.

Preseason injury updates (Fantasy Football 2024)

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB hamstring injuries last an average of 2-3 weeks. Gibbs reportedly intends to return in about 2 weeks, which would confirm a relatively mild injury. Don't expect a major drop in performance until the start of week 1, but there's about a 20% risk of him re-injuring himself in the first half of the season.

Puka Nacua

Comments suggest a moderate bursa injury in the knee. This is generally not a structural issue, so the risk of a drop in performance or increased re-injury rate is likely low. McVay, who is rated as very accurate in the CoachSpeak Index for injuries, commented that we can expect Nacua to be fit in Week 1, which further strengthens our suspicions.

Hollywood Brown

SC joint dislocations are dangerous, but the good news is they are unlikely to cause major performance degradation or reinjury risks upon return. The reported time frame was 4-6 weeks. Tyreek Hill and Danny Amendola both needed 5 weeks to return, which would put Brown back in Week 2.

Christian McCaffrey

He has a calf strain, but reports suggest it's relatively benign. Expect 100% strength by Week 1, but recurrence risk is ~20%. As for CMC's age and history, there's nothing to worry about. RB's age decline doesn't usually start at 28, and his history shows a series of common injuries with no pattern suggesting an anatomical weak spot.

Anthony Richardson

Data suggests his AC (shoulder) joint surgery in '23 shouldn't affect his throwing accuracy or power. Injury risk going forward will depend mostly on the type of hits he takes/goes for. In particular, mobile QBs who slide aren't at increased risk, but those who drop their shoulder are injured at a similar rate to RBs.

Justin Herbert

Plantar fascia injuries are difficult to treat. Herbert has taken the boot off, confirming that the injury is relatively minor. There is a medium risk of the injury becoming noticeable during the season, which could limit his mobility. However, these injuries can be treated with injections, and given his extreme resilience in the past, playing despite injuries, the most likely outcome is that Herbert does not miss any time.

Sam LaPorta

Another Lion who is out but not out. Reports suggest it is a moderate hamstring injury. The data supports playing Week 1 at over 90%, but there is also the concern that he could re-injure himself. If he returns as planned at the end of this week, that would put him at ~25% for the year.

Kirk Cousins

The Achilles data strongly suggests deficits in strength and mobility. We will likely see this translate into a focus on the quick passing game, a lower tolerance for pressure, and potentially limitations in long ball throwing power. With a strong O-line and talented players around him, we expect Cousins to excel in the short and intermediate game starting in Week 1.

Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers has two advantages over Cousins. First, it's his left leg, which is less important for push-off power when throwing. Second, he's had a few extra months of rehab, which helps him a lot in the strengthening process. His yardage has been declining since 2020, and we expect that trend to continue. However, similar to Cousins, we expect strong performance from the pocket with an emphasis on the quick passing game.

TJ Hockenson

There are rumors circulating that Hockenson could be back sooner than expected, but the data points to a mid-October return as the most likely scenario. As an elite athlete (~80th percentile), his drop in performance is only estimated to be ~15%, but it will likely be greater if he rushes the return. Of note, Hockenson is at increased risk for minor injuries in the first 6 weeks of his return.

Jonathon Brooks

The data supports a comeback from an ACL tear similar to Breece Hall's '23. Commentary suggests a Week 3-4 return is most likely, but young running backs also play an average of ~4 games to improve their touches. Efficiency initially drops ~15-20%, with a 90% projected for Week 8. Similar to Hockenson, Brooks will have a ~15% increased risk of minor injuries (e.g. hamstring strains) in his first 6 games after returning. Overall, a strong second half is projected.

Kyle Pitts and Javonte Williams

Both suffered injuries to multiple knee ligaments during the last offseason. These are massive blows that lead to 20-30% performance drops and significant limitations in the first year after returning. As young elite athletes, both are expected to be back in pre-injury shape by early 2024. If they stay healthy, they can expect big improvements.

And that's it, but only for now. Who did we miss? Send us your questions on Twitter/X @FantasyPros and @SportMDAnalysis. We'll be back soon!

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