Employment growth is expected to be revised downward by 818,000 jobs

The government's figures on employment growth last year are expected to be revised significantly downward, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.

The agency said that employment growth through March this year had to be revised downward by 818,000, which corresponds to 0.5 percent of the total number of jobs and is therefore stronger than usual.

The changes are part of the agency's routine process for updating its employment growth estimates and are provisional in nature. The final changes will be made in the employment report for January next year.

The BLS reconciles its wage and salary employment figures, which are based on a monthly establishment survey, with a comprehensive census of jobs. This process can result in major revisions.

This comprehensive survey, the BLS Quarterly Employment and Wage Census, is a quarterly assessment of employment and wages reported by employers, covering more than 95% of all jobs in the United States.

However, it is possible that the QCEW underestimates actual employment growth.

One reason for this may be that employment among illegal immigrants is less well tracked. A recent analysis by the Congressional Budget Office, which included Department of Homeland Security data on the number of people crossing the border without authorization, found that the influx of illegal immigrants in recent years has led to faster population growth and higher employment than reported by the BLS.

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Goldman Sachs economists pointed out in a recent commentary that the QCEW is based on comprehensive unemployment insurance records, but illegal immigrants are generally not eligible for unemployment benefits.