Estimates of annual job growth in the US fall by 818,000 to 2.1 million

The original estimate of jobs created from April 2023 to March 2024 was 2.9 million.

The BLS said the number of jobs is routinely estimated using the Current Employment Statistics survey and is based on state unemployment insurance records that employers must file, but the estimate, which was revised downward Wednesday, is not final.

“Existing employment series will not be updated with the release of the preliminary benchmark estimate. Data for all CES series will be updated when the final benchmark revision is issued,” the BLS said.

This final revision will be published in February 2025.

Annual estimates of the national CES employment series for the past ten years have averaged plus or minus one-tenth of 1 percent of total nonfarm employment.

If the Federal Reserve interprets this revision as a weakening of the labor market, this could be an additional incentive for the Fed to lower interest rates.

“The labor market appears weaker than initially reported. A deteriorating labor market will allow the Fed to highlight both sides of the dual mandate, and investors should expect the Fed to prepare markets for a rate cut at the September meeting,” Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, told CNBC.

According to the BLS, the highest revised preliminary employment numbers were in the professional and business services sector at -358,000, followed by leisure and hospitality at -150,000.

In retail, the number of jobs fell by 129,000, and in manufacturing, the number was provisionally estimated to be 115,000 lower than initially reported.