BLS revises Biden employment numbers down by 818,000, but NH largely unscathed

While her party was spreading “joy” at the Democratic National Convention on Wednesday, the news on the labor market front was not so good for the Biden-Harris administration. The Labor Department itself announced it would cut more than 800,000 jobs from its reports – another potential flashpoint for the economy ahead of the November election.

The good news: New Hampshire has largely been spared from the wave of revisions.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) labor market revision showed that there were 818,000 fewer jobs in the economy over the previous 12 months (as of March 2024) than originally estimated.

House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington (Republican of Texas) noted that “all of the net job losses are in the private sector.”

“Based on more comprehensive data from state unemployment tax records, the Biden Bureau of Labor Statistics admits that it was off by nearly a million, or 30 percent, in the number of new jobs created between March 2023 and March 2024, five times its average margin of error,” Arrington said.

But according to Greg David, New Hampshire's employment security economist, New Hampshire's job growth numbers remained largely stable.

“For New Hampshire, nonfarm employment estimates for March 2024 were reduced by 2,600 jobs, or 0.4 percent. Although the revised employment numbers were not released, job growth between March 2023 and March 2024 would still be about 1.1 percent.”

Even better, David said, “Most data points to a labor market that is slowing but still strong. The number of unfilled jobs is declining but is still above pre-pandemic levels.”

The revision in national employment numbers comes at an inopportune time for Vice President Harris and her efforts to succeed her Democratic counterpart Joe Biden. Polls show that most Americans believe the country is on the wrong track (63 percent) and that the current economic situation in their country is bad (56 percent).

One reason is that incomes have not kept pace with rising costs. As a result, consumer debt has reached a record $17.8 trillion, more than $3 trillion more than at the start of the Biden-Harris administration.

Again, New Hampshire dodged the bullet, ranking in the top 10 for individual income. It also ranks 49th for the lowest credit card debt burden relative to income.

Still, there's no doubt that the Granite State's overheated economy is cooling down. One metric David looks at is “workers voluntarily leaving their jobs. A high rate of voluntary resignations is generally a sign that workers are confident that good job opportunities are available. Layoffs have been historically low in 2022 and 2023 and are gradually rising back to pre-pandemic levels.”

“Wage growth has also slowed, a sign that employers no longer need to offer significant wage increases to attract or retain workers,” David wrote in an August 2024 NHES report. “By June 2024, New Hampshire private employee wages had increased 2.6 percent from the previous year. Wage growth was over four percent per year in 2022 and 2023 and nearly six percent in 2021, the beginning of the great resignation.”

The economy is sure to be a central issue in the upcoming New Hampshire elections, both at the state and federal level. Harris has proposed imposing state-mandated price controls on food, an approach that was tried (and failed) in the 1970s. Economists on both sides, including President Barack Obama's top adviser, have criticized the idea as economically untenable.

However, none of the New Hampshire Democrats currently running for governor or Congress – including U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas – would respond when asked by NHJournal whether they support Harris' price control plan.

Republicans in the Granite State, on the other hand, are united in their opposition.

If voters in New Hampshire have a choice between a Republican who will continue the economic policies of the past eight years and a Democrat who will embrace the economic policies of Biden and Harris—which have just proven to be even less successful than expected—the Republicans are likely to prevail.