Can SMU overcome ACC’s growing pains?

After an 11-win season and the AAC championship, expectations remain high for SMU to build on its best season in decades.

But with the move to the ACC and more challenging opponents on the horizon, there are some unknowns for the Mustangs, who will face some of the conference's best teams, including Florida State and Louisville.

Here are the best and worst case scenarios for SMU this year:

Worst-case scenario

The worst-case scenario for SMU is a reality that most teams that change conferences face: a losing record.

The four teams that joined the Big 12 as part of the conference realignment last year all had a losing record. Only UCF qualified for a bowl game.

All four had won at least eight games the previous season, but none were conference champions like SMU with eleven wins.

SMU had a manageable schedule for conference play, with only one opponent ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 (No. 10 Florida State), avoiding playing teams like Clemson, Miami and NC State.

Even with losses to Florida State, Louisville and TCU, SMU could afford to play three more games and still qualify for a bowl game. The rest of the teams on their schedule had a combined record of 42-67. Even if SMU lost to the other two teams with winning records last year (Duke and Boston College), it would still finish 7-5.

SMU was ranked seventh in the ACC preseason poll and received votes in the AP preseason poll. It is expected to once again compete for bowl eligibility, and failing to achieve that goal would be a disappointment.

Best case

On the other hand, SMU could quickly move into the national spotlight and into the top 25 if it manages to win all of its expected games.

SMU entered the season as a favorite in all but two games and was only considered an early underdog against Florida State and Louisville, according to ESPN Analytics. That means if those predictions hold true, SMU will finish with a total record of 10-2, earn a spot in a prestigious bowl and likely finish the season ranked again.

The Mustangs return many of their best players from last season, including quarterbacks Preston Stone and Kevin Jennings and linebackers Kobe Wilson and Ahmad Walker, who were the team's two best tacklers last season.

If SMU can quickly overcome the initial difficulties that come with joining an influential conference, it could surprise the ACC and become one of the best in its first year.

forecast

SMU has the potential to build on its strong first two years under Rhett Lashlee and return to a bowl game, but expect some bumps along the way, especially early in conference play.

The Mustangs should easily survive their first two games against Nevada and Houston Christian, but soon after they will begin the toughest stretch of the season against rivals TCU, Florida State and Louisville.

Even if SMU loses those three games, it should bounce back on the other end since the conference schedule is easier as November ends. A record of 8-4 would mark a successful first year in the ACC and would earn SMU a berth in a bowl game for the sixth consecutive year.

On X/Twitter: @Lassimak

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