the battle for the Vuelta has begun – Rouleur

24 August 2024

Primož Roglič is angry. The casual, short answers and the phrases “we'll see what happens” hide his inner anger. He knows that he and his team Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe made a mistake on the sixth stage of the Vuelta a España. He knows that it won't be easy to dislodge Ben O'Connor from the top of the general classification. And he knows that he has to turn his anger into something positive if he wants to win a record-breaking fourth red jersey.

On stage seven, he tried to upset O'Connor, taking six bonus seconds on the final climb. On stage eight, the penultimate day in Andalusia, he did even better, cutting almost a minute off the Australian. On a steep final climb in the small town of Cazorla, Roglič overtook the leader once, then twice, and finally, on the third occasion, he managed to distance himself from the race leader.

When he reached the top of the narrow, winding road, a climb no different from so many other Spanish courses that end at a castle or church, Roglič did what he has done so many times over the past six years: he beat Enric Mas in the sprint to the finish, securing 10 bonus seconds. More importantly, however, O'Connor crossed the line 46 seconds behind. The day's outcome was worse than O'Connor could have predicted.

As a result, the Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale rider's lead was reduced to 3:49, but since he was expected to lose more than a minute to Roglič in the time trial on the final day, it could be said that his actual lead is around two and a half minutes. With so many more Harbor and the upcoming mountain finishes, Roglič will be optimistic – but not certain – that he can make up for his horror show on stage six and prevent O'Connor from taking an unexpected victory.

Roglic's victory in Cazorla was his 14th in the race, moving him up to sixth on the all-time list of stage wins. But he understands that displacing O'Connor will take more than just overtaking a rival at the finish line; it will require bolder, riskier and more imaginative tactics. In short, he needs to start from further back, because if he can't do that, O'Connor can keep up. It's clear the Slovenian has gotten the memo.

Stage nine offers Roglič another chance. Although the day ends with a fast descent to Granada, ending the race's stay in the south of the country before heading to the greener and cooler north, the peloton must tackle the Alto de Hazallanas twice. If O'Connor could design a climb that would undo him, it would be Hazallanas. It's narrow, painful and consistently steep, there's no shade, and at 7km long, there's enough road and launch ramps for Roglič to do maximum damage.

What we saw on stage eight, and to a lesser extent the day before, is that Roglič is in no mood to bide his time. On the contrary, he is in a hurry to make up the minutes and is eager – even desperate – to wipe out O'Connor's lead as quickly as possible.

Behind him, other general classification contenders are falling back – and fast. Sepp Kuss, the defending champion, lost another minute in Cazorla, while UAE Team Emirates endured a disastrous day they are not used to: Adam Yates continued to suffer and João Almeida finished almost five minutes behind. The reality is, if Roglič can actually catch O'Connor, he can lose the race. Mas is riding well, as he does every Vuelta, but unless Roglič crashes and falls – a possibility that really cannot be ruled out, given that he does this on average once every 18 days of racing – the Spaniard is unlikely to snatch the red card from O'Connor. It will be Roglič.

As we wait for the final result of the next two weeks of racing, we are observing a side of Roglič that we have rarely seen before. Cold, calculating and focused are the 34-year-old's everyday characteristics, but add anger to the mix and you get a menacing Primož Roglič who delivers great cycling. Will O'Connor resist or give up?