Best and worst scenarios for every SEC team in 2024

Worst case: 3-9 (0-8)

Best case: 7-5 (2-6/3-5)

DW's prediction: 6-6 (2-6)

Based on the structure of this schedule, it is entirely possible that the Hogs could improve significantly from last year and still fall short of bowl eligibility. It is not only due to the level of competition, but also due to the lack of opportunity to gain and maintain momentum in a time when Arkansas could really use a boost at the beginning of the year.

It's great to have Petrino back on the Hill, but it's still a new coordinator, a new offense, a new quarterback and a rebuilt but still flawed offensive line. To say there are a lot of question marks and unknowns in all three phases would be an understatement. Undoubtedly a lot of solid additions, but a lot unknown.

The point is, right now you might prefer a schedule like Auburn's, where the first five games are home games. Missouri And Oklahoma get their first four at home. Ole Miss gets four of the first five at home and the only away tour takes place in Forest in Wake Forest.

Arkansas, on the other hand, heads to Stillwater in Week 2 to face a top-20 team that finished second in the Big 12 last year and is a Heisman candidate. And no matter how much time you spend analyzing this year's schedule, it's just hard to imagine a comeback season for Pittman and a best-case scenario for Arkansas that doesn't include an upset win over the Cowboys on Sept. 7.

Without them, it's awfully difficult to find three SEC wins to go along with the automatic wins over UAPB. UAB And Louisiana Tech University out of conference. That's because six of your eight SEC opponents are ranked in the top 20. The other two SEC opponents that aren't ranked are 7-1 and 9-3 against the Hogs recently and will obviously have to play both on the road.

You play your first five games in five different places, against two top 15 teams in October and three top 11 teams in November. No matter how you twist and turn it or what your roster looks like, from a dynamics perspective, it's difficult.

There are other disadvantages to the schedule. For example: Auburn Going through three straight warmups at Jordan-Hare before opening the SEC home game against the Hogs is a big deal.

And as a side note: Why has Arkansas played 32 conference openers as a member of the SEC and 21 of them away? Why has Arkansas Alabama or Georgia in 15 of those 32 season openers? Because of the A&M streak over the last decade, this is the 11th consecutive season the Razorbacks will not play a conference opener on the Hill.

Back to the schedule: While the Hogs are playing away at Auburn, Texas A&M, their next opponent, will be at home and taking a nap against Bowling GreenOnce the season starts, nobody talks about it anymore, but matchups like this one the week before can make a huge difference.

When the Hogs finally come home for the conference opener on October 5, they will of course get a Top 15 Tennessee team that will be well rested after a break, and Arkansas will play for the sixth consecutive year on Saturday. The Razorbacks have been in the top 10 for the past three seasons (Auburn 2021, Freedom 2022, Miss. State 2023), so I'm not exactly happy with the record.

This home game against Tennessee is one that you should I have a good feeling about the start of the season because it's a great opportunity before the offseason, but who in their right mind could predict, based on what we've seen the last three years, that Arkansas would show up and play well enough to beat a top-15 team at this point?

As a side note, and to illustrate how important timing is to the course of every team's season, imagine if Arkansas had gotten that first off week just a week earlier. If you do it right after the A&M game, you now have four straight games in the middle of the schedule instead of three, but you have the off-season break and three of the four games would be at home.

Still the same tough opponents – Tennessee, LSUat State of Mississippi and against Ole Miss – but much easier to handle and with a higher potential to build momentum if you could keep up with Tennessee's bye and enter this stretch with fresh legs.

However, there are two well-timed off days and fortunate breaks in play that give the Razorbacks a chance against their biggest rivals. The Hogs have a break before hosting LSU on Oct. 19, and the Tigers are coming off what I expect to be a battle of the undefeated against Ole Miss at home.

Arkansas' second game will take place one week before the host Texaswho has to play Florida at home a week before visiting Fayetteville. Records and rankings are irrelevant for these two series, as Arkansas has won five of its last seven games against Texas and its last four games against LSU have all been decided by 3 points each. I definitely wouldn't be surprised if the Hogs take advantage of the byes and beat at least one of these rivals in Fayetteville, but I'm picking the favorites in both games.

Mississippi State is 9-3 against the Hogs over the last 12 years, but is one of two teams projected to finish behind Arkansas in 2024. The Razorbacks will be coming off an always physical game against LSU, but catching State after back-to-back games against Georgia and Texas A&M certainly helps. The Bulldogs will also have already played Florida and Texas (not to mention a Week 2 trip at State of Arizona), so who knows where they'll be at this point in Jeff Lebby's first season.

I'm confident the Razorbacks will get their first SEC win of the season in Starkville.

Arkansas has played two straight games before the Ole Miss game, at home against LSU and away at Mississippi State, but this game also comes at an interesting time for the Rebels.

Their trip to Fayetteville takes place between big home games against Oklahoma and Georgia, and with Pittman only having a failed 2-point conversion from the 3-1 against Lane Kiffinthere's always the potential for an upset. So much so that I actually backed the Hogs to use the momentum from Starkville and destroy the Rebels' chances of making the playoffs.

There has been a lot of talk about Missouri's schedule being one of the most favorable in the SEC, but the Tigers are one of only three teams to finish the regular season with four consecutive SEC games. The Hogs host Louisiana Tech a week before visiting Columbiawhich helps, and Mizzou will be at the end of a stretch that includes a home game against Oklahoma, at South Carolinaat Mississippi State and at home against Arkansas.

As we recently examined, there are usually 3-4 SEC teams per year that do significantly better or worse than the media predicts. I wouldn't disagree with anyone expecting a 4-8 or 5-7 season from the Razorbacks, but the signing of Petrino makes me believe they will somehow surprise enough to make the bowl.

This requires some surprises, and based on a combination of the story, the course of the game and my guess the season will go smoothly. I think Arkansas pulls off an upset in Stillwater and goes home 4-0 in nonconference play, and then puts both Mississippi schools within six wins.