Mets analysis: Francisco Lindor's MVP case

As fans of individual baseball teams, it is easy to be influenced by local narratives. If we only consume the hype (or fodder) generated by the local media, we might think that these stories are from all Baseball fans, not just an insignificant, regionally concentrated percentage (no matter how large that region may be).

So when members of the collective Mets media suggest Francisco Lindor as a legitimate candidate for the National League’s Most Valuable Player title, a discerning fan might filter this out as propaganda:

• This can't be true, in the first two weeks of the season he seemed unbeatable.
• He wasn't even an All-Star this year!
• Don't you know what Shohei Ohtani is up to?

It doesn't help that Lindor has his share of critics on this site, at least on social media, where even the most banal arguments are shared with valuable ideas. But his exemplary 2024 season confirmed two obvious truths: He is the Mets' best player and has been for some time.

Plus, he has a real shot at winning MVP, so let's prove it.

The candidates

Lindor benefits from playing in a league whose top team is less productive than the others, since the three to five most productive outfielders in baseball by your Wins Above Replacement vote all play in the American League. If he had repeated this season while still playing in Cleveland, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

But he doesn't! So let's discuss it.

Lindor's three biggest competitors (in no particular order) are Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers, Elly De La Cruz of the Reds and Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks. Lindor currently leads all of them (and the entire league) in Fangraphs WAR (6.5), while he ranks third in Baseball-Reference WAR (5.8) behind Ohtani (6.6) and Marte (6.0).

Unless he can perform in September like he did in April, it looks like De La Cruz will be the first out. Playing for a Reds team that is way behind in the playoff race doesn't help him – and the 22-year-old will likely be in the MVP discussion for at least the next decade. Who's next?

Marte is perhaps Lindor's closest comparison, as the two had remarkably similar seasons. Like Lindor, Marte played passably until May, but really took off in June, posting a 189 wRC+ since then while helping to put a struggling Diamondbacks team into solid playoff position.

Marte's offensive numbers outperform Lindor's (151 to 134 wRC+), but Lindor has the edge in baserunning (89th percentile in Statcast baserunning rating vs. 75th) and fielding (14 OAA vs. seven) while playing a slightly more valuable position. The final month will allow each player to gain some distance from the other, as you could make a compelling argument for either candidate right now.

But maybe they don't even see each other as their main enemy because, well…

Yes, but Ohtani

Sigh.

Since they are very similar players, the Lindor vs. Marte discussion can be based on numbers, eye tests, and any other method used to value excellent midfielders.

Ohtani’s 2024 season, however, does not offer this comfort.

The Dodgers' designated hitter has been – without question – the league's most incredible offensive force. He's hitting .292/.378/.615 and leads the league in runs (100), home runs (41), RBI (94) and wRC+ (170). He's likely to surpass his career highs in all of those categories and has already surpassed his career-high with 40 stolen bases. If he played any kind of defense, even in mediocre right field, there's no doubt who the NL MVP would be this season.

But he doesn't, so we need to have discussions.

Ohtani's MVP case compared to Lindor or Marte is less a question of analytical value than a question of the purpose of the award. We are not talking about the most valuable BatsmanAfter all, no player has ever been named MVP of his league without playing a single inning with a glove.

Should Ohtani be first?

Honestly, maybe – especially if he becomes the first member of the 50/50 club. Not that 50 home runs + 50 stolen bases has a meaning that can't be surpassed by any other statistical combination, but I mean… it's just so cool! How weird would it be to look at Ohtani's baseball card 50 years later, see a 50/50 season, and wonder why he not win the MVP this year?

Is it because Lindor was so good?

But Lindor!

Okay, let's make a case.

Lindor passed Ohtani in fWAR on August 20 and has increased his lead slightly since then. That's a good start.

Lindor's slight deficit in bWAR to Marte can be explained in part by the way Baseball Reference calculates defensive WAR, where Marte has a slight advantage. Reference considers Lindor merely a pretty good outfielder, not a great one, while other, shall we say, more reputable sources disagree.

Statcast ranks Lindor's 14 outs above average — twice as many as Marte's — in the 99th percentile of all MLB outfielders, behind only Dansby Swanson (15) among NL shortstops. Ohtani's defense ranks… well, it doesn't rank because he hasn't worn a glove all season.

Although Ohtani's 50/50 chase is making headlines, Lindor is also on his own hunt for splitty, aiming for his second consecutive 30/30 season. No shortstop in MLB history has ever had two 30/30 seasons in his career, let alone two in a row (though Bobby Witt Jr. could also reach that mark by the end of 2024).

And while Ohtani's baserunning has put up big numbers this year, it's worth noting that Statcast doesn't care much about it. Ohtani ranks in the 57th percentile in baserunning value (0) compared to Lindor's 89th percentile (2) because Ohtani is relatively passive on the basepaths when he's not stealing (3% attempts above average) while Lindor has accumulated more opportunities to advance. The difference between the two, to be fair, looks more dramatic on paper than in practice, but it's good evidence that baserunning isn't just about stolen bases.

Lindor has a better overall chance of winning MVP than Ohtani, although Ohtani's offensive excellence and superstar status could overshadow anything else. On the other hand, voters will have an easy time against Ohtani next year when he tries to return to the mound. And besides, isn't he already the best baseball player we've ever seen? Does he need another MVP trophy? at the moment?

If Lindor maintains his August pace for the rest of the season and the Mets play their way into the playoffs, there's a pretty good chance Lindor will become the first Mets player to be named MVP. In Vegas, Lindor has the second-best odds to win, although Ohtani is the clear favorite in their eyes.

However, we still have a little more than a month left – the discussion does not end here.

But he wasn't even an All-Star this year

Yeah, that was pretty strange, wasn't it?