America's Most Magnificent Housing Bubbles, August 2024 Update: Prices Slowing. Below 2022 Peak: San Francisco, Phoenix, Seattle, Portland, Denver, Dallas, Las Vegas

New highs: Miami, Los Angeles, San Diego, Boston, New York, Miami, Tampa, Los Angeles, San Diego, Washington DC, Chicago.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Home prices in the 20 metropolitan areas of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index posted their smallest monthly increase since declining five months ago, continuing a downward trend. The “June” data released today are three-month moving averages for sales that appeared in the public record in April, May and June.

Per subway, Home prices rose month-on-month in 19 of the 20 metropolitan areas. The exception was the San Francisco Bay Area with its five counties, where prices for single-family homes remained more or less unchanged and prices for condos fell. In Portland, the monthly price increase slowed to just 0.1%, and in Tampa to 0.2%. This price dynamic is due to the fact that demand collapsed due to excessive prices and supply increased sharply.

Prices were still below their 2022 highs in 7 of the greatest real estate bubbles (month of peak):

1. San Francisco Bay Area: -7.0% (May 2022)
2. Phoenix: -4.2% (June 2022)
3. Seattle: -4.0% (May 2022)
4. Portland: -2.9% (May 2022)
5. Denver: -2.6% (May 2022)
6. Dallas: -1.9% (June 2022)
7. Las Vegas: -0.4% (July 2022)

The biggest real estate bubbles by metropolitan region.

Single-family homes in the San Francisco Bay Area: In the Case-Shiller Index, the San Francisco metropolitan area includes five counties (San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Mateo) of the nine-county Bay Area.

• Month to month: unchanged
• Year-on-year: +4.3%.
• From the peak in May 2022: -7.0%.

Condos in the San Francisco Bay Area: Condos make up a large part of the market in the Bay Area, especially in the city of San Francisco.

• Month to month: -0.2%.
• Year-on-year: +1.0%.
• From the peak in May 2022: -7.5%.
• Just one step above May-August 2018.

Seattle subway:

• Month to month: +0.6%.
• Year-on-year: +6.7%.
• From the peak in May 2022: -4.0%.

Phoenix subway:

• Month to month: +0.4%.
• Year-on-year: +3.7%.
• From the peak in June 2022: -4.2%.

Portland Metro:

• Month to month: +0.1%.
• Year-on-year: +0.8%.
• From the peak in May 2022: -2.9%.

Denver Metro:

• Month to month: +0.3%.
• Year-on-year: +1.9%.
• From the peak in May 2022: -2.6%.

Dallas Metro:

• Month to month: +0.4%.
• Year-on-year: +2.3%.
• From the peak in June 2022: -1.9%.

Las Vegas subway:

• Month to month: +1.2%.
• Year-on-year: +8.6%.
• From the peak in July 2022: -1.3%.

Tampa Metro:

• Month to month: +0.2%.
• Year-on-year: +3.1%.
• New high, +1.5% from the July 2022 peak.

San Diego Metro:

• Month to month: +0.7%.
• Year-on-year: +8.7%.
• New high, +5.0% from the May 2022 peak.

Los Angeles subway

• Month to month: +0.6%.
• Year-on-year: +8.2%.
• New high, +5.0% from the May 2022 peak.

Washington DC subway:

• Month to month: +0.6%.
• Year-on-year: +6.0%.
• New high, +6.7% compared to the June 2022 peak.

Boston subway:

• Month to month: +0.7%.
• Year-on-year: +6.6%.
• New high, +7.5% from June 2022 peak.

Miami Metro:

• Month to month: +0.7%.
• Year-on-year: +6.9%.
• New high, +8.1% compared to the July 2022 high.

New York subway:

• Month to month: +0.6%.
• Year-on-year: +9.0%.
• New high, +12.5% ​​compared to the June 2022 peak.

To qualify for the most magnificent real estate bubblesthe metropolis must have experienced a real estate price inflation of 200% or more at its peak since 2000. The indices were set at 100 for the year 2000. Today's index value for San Diego of 449 has increased by 349% since 2000, making San Diego The most magnificent real estate bubble on this list, ahead of Los Angeles (447) and Miami (443).

The remaining 6 of the 20 metros In the Case-Shiller Index, the cities (Chicago, Charlotte, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Detroit and Cleveland) have experienced significantly lower inflation in home prices since 2000, despite the price spikes of recent years, and are therefore not eligible for this list.

Chicago Subway has an index score of 209 and is up 109% since 2000, so it's far from eligible for this list. But the nearly 50% price increase since the Fed's money-printing spree began in March 2020 has been great in itself, and the metropolis is so big – eight counties: Cook, DeKalb, Du Page, Grundy, Kane, Kendal, McHenry and Will – that it deserves a spot:

• Month to month: +1.0%
• Year-on-year: +7.0%.
• New high, +10.8% compared to the July 2022 high.

methodology. The Case-Shiller Index uses the “sales pair” methodology and compares sales in the current month with those in which the same homes sold previously. Price changes are weighted by how long ago the previous sale occurred. Adjustments are made for home improvements and other factors (37-page methodology).

It's just home price inflation. The Case-Shiller Index measures how many dollars it takes to buy the same home over time. It is a measure of home price inflation. San Diego has seen 349% home price inflation since 2000. During the same period, consumer price inflation, as measured by the CPI, was 86%.

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