Study shows extreme increase in suicidal thoughts after Robin Williams' death

In 2014, the world was shocked by the sudden death of beloved actor Robin Williams, who committed suicide. Four years later, the deaths of fashion designer Kate Spade and chef Anthony Bourdain, just days apart, sparked a similar wave of grief and confusion.

These spectacular suicides have not only stirred up the media, they have also had a measurable impact on the mental health of the population. A recent study by Columbia University, published in the journal Scientific advancesshows how these tragic events led to a significant increase in suicidal thoughts and behavior throughout the United States.

While individual factors such as mental disorders and life stressors are known triggers of suicide, there is also evidence that exposure to suicidal behavior can trigger suicidal thoughts in vulnerable individuals.

This process, known as suicide contagion, has been observed in local clusters, such as in schools or communities, but its effects on a larger scale, such as at the national level following a high-profile suicide, are less well understood. The researchers at Columbia University sought to fill this gap by developing a model that could capture the dynamics of suicide contagion in response to these highly publicized deaths.

The researchers developed a mathematical model designed to simulate the dynamics of suicide contagion, treating it in a similar way to infectious diseases, to estimate how news of the suicides of Robin Williams, Kate Spade and Anthony Bourdain influenced suicidal thoughts and behavior in the United States.

“I work as an infectious disease modeler. The transmission of infectious pathogens is in some ways comparable to the spread of news, information, misinformation and ideas,” explains Jeffrey Shaman, co-author of the study, interim dean of the Columbia Climate School and professor of environmental health sciences at the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, who is known for developing models for influenza and SARS-CoV-2.

“This project grew out of a conversation with Katherine Keyes, one of my co-authors, where we discussed the idea of ​​suicide contagion. From that and further reading, we realized that while suicide contagion is an often discussed concept, there were almost no mathematical frameworks that dynamically represented the prevalence of suicidal thoughts and behavior. So we decided to develop such a system and couple it with data to represent suicide contagion in the real world. We thought it was an important topic of study – one with clear public health implications.”

To construct their model, the researchers used two primary data sources. The first was the weekly number of calls to the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline, now known as the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline. These data served as an indicator of suicidal ideation—the thoughts people have about committing suicide.

The second source of data was death data from the National Vital Statistics System, which provided nationwide information on suicides. By combining these data sets, the researchers were able to estimate the level of suicidal ideation and actual suicides that occurred following these celebrity suicides.

The model divided the population into three different categories: people who are not currently considering suicide, people who are considering suicide, and people who have died by suicide. It also considered how people may shift between these states over time, particularly after a triggering event such as a celebrity's suicide.

The model included parameters to represent the likelihood that someone would begin to consider suicide due to the suicidal behavior or death of another person, effectively treating these thoughts and actions as something that could spread through the population, much like a virus.

Following the death of Robin Williams in 2014, the model estimated that the rate at which people were having suicidal thoughts increased by a thousandfold due to the contagious nature of suicide. This significant increase in suicidal thoughts was reflected in the marked increase in calls to the 988 Lifeline and in the increase in suicide deaths observed in the data.

“I was surprised at how extreme the reaction was,” Shaman said.

A similar, albeit less intense, pattern was observed after the deaths of Kate Spade and Anthony Bourdain in 2018. Contagion rates were about half of those after Williams' death. Despite these differences in magnitude, both events triggered a sharp increase in suicidal thoughts and actions. Contagion effects peaked within two weeks before gradually returning to normal levels.

“Celebrity suicides affect many people,” Shaman told PsyPost. “Our affinity or identification with the deceased may trigger suicidal thoughts in some and suicide attempts in others. The risk is highest immediately after the first news of the suicide. By understanding this phenomenon and quantifying how much and for how long the suicide contagion rate increases, we can better understand the risk and know when and how to handle the news cycle.”

However, the researchers caution that while their model is sophisticated, it is only one of many possible approaches to understanding suicide contagion. Additional models need to be developed and tested to examine different types of contagion and to simulate suicide contagion at a more local level, for example within specific communities or social networks.

The model's assumptions, such as the rate at which individuals lose their vulnerability to suicide, still need to be empirically tested. This could be done by examining different types of contagion, such as those that occur in response to media portrayals of suicide or other forms of social influence.

“More studies are needed, including with different model forms, for different populations and using different data,” Shaman said. “Is the response consistent in such (future) studies? That is important to determine.”

Despite these limitations, the study represents a significant advance in understanding how suicide can spread in a population. “Ultimately, our goal is to work toward a point where a suicide contagion model can enable a rapid response focused on preventing suicide,” said Keyes, a professor of epidemiology and director of SPIRT, a new initiative at Columbia University designed to promote collaborative public health research focused on deepening our understanding of the mental health crisis and developing effective solutions.

Authors of the study “Quantifying suicide contagion at population scale” are Jeffrey Shaman, Sasikiran Kandula, Sen Pei, Marta Galanti, Mark Olfson, Madelyn Gould and Katherine Keyes.